粤港澳大湾区人才与先进制造业耦合协调发展及障碍因素分析OA
Analysis of the Coupling and Coordinated Development of Talent and Advanced Manufacturing in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and Its Obstacle Factors
先进制造业是粤港澳大湾区实体经济最具发展活力的领域,是新质生产力形成和发展的主阵地,其与人才的协调发展直接关系到区域产业升级与创新效能.研究基于2012-2022年粤港澳大湾区内地九市的面板数据,综合运用耦合协调模型、障碍度模型与灰色预测模型,系统考察了人才与先进制造业的耦合协调水平、关键障碍因子及未来演变趋势.研究发现:大湾区产才耦合协调度整体偏低,核心症结在于人才发展滞后,但整体呈向好趋势;城市间差异显著,形成以深圳、广州为双核心的"两核多梯度"空间格局,中心城市协调水平显著高于外围城市.障碍因子诊断表明,人才短缺、产业规模效益不足、科研投入欠缺是协调发展的三大主要障碍,其中人才规模障碍度已从2012年的21.33％升至2022年的25.16％,并于2018年超越产业规模成为首要障碍因子,且预测显示2027年将进一步上升至28.8％,人才短缺问题亟待重点关注.基于上述结论,研究从构建跨境协同创新平台、深化产学研合作、推动科技创新激励机制多元化、加大科研投入与企业研发税收优惠等方面提出针对性建议,旨在为推动粤港澳大湾区先进制造业与人才的高质量协调发展提供决策参考.
Advanced manufacturing is the most dynamic field of the real economy in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA)and the main arena for the formation and development of new-quality productivity.Its coordinated development with talent directly relates to regional industrial upgrading and innovation efficiency.Based on panel data from the nine mainland cities in the GBA from 2012 to 2022,this study systematically investigates the coupling coordination level,key obstacle factors,and future evolution trends using a coupling coordination model,an obstacle degree model,and a grey prediction model.The study finds that the overall coupling coordination degree in the Greater Bay Area is relatively low,with the core crux being the lag in talent development,although the overall trend is positive.There are significant differences among cities,forming a"dual-core,multi-gradient"spatial pattern with Shenzhen and Guangzhou as the dual cores.The coordination level of central cities is significantly higher than that of peripheral cities.Obstacle factor diagnosis indicates that talent shortage,insufficient industrial scale benefits,and lack of scientific research investment are the three main obstacles restricting coordinated development.Notably,the obstacle degree of talent scale has risen from 21.33％in 2012 to 25.16％in 2022,surpassing industrial scale to become the primary obstacle factor in 2018.Predictions show it will further rise to 28.8％by 2027,highlighting the urgent need to address the talent shortage.Based on the above conclusions,the study proposes targeted suggestions from aspects such as building cross-border collaborative innovation platforms,deepening industry-university-research cooperation,promoting diversified incentives for scientific and technological innovation,and increasing scientific research investment and corporate R&D tax incentives,aiming to provide decision-making references for promoting the high-quality coordinated development of advanced manufacturing and talent in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.
吴凡;黄焕水;魏红英
广西大学公共管理学院广西大学公共管理学院深圳职业技术大学
社会科学
粤港澳大湾区先进制造业产才协调耦合协调障碍度
Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay AreaAdvanced manufacturingIndustry-talent coordinationCoupling coordinationObstacle degree
《中国人事科学》 2026 (6)
31-44,14
本文系国家社会科学基金项目"中国—东盟职业资格互认协同机制研究"(项目编号:23XZZ006)广东省哲学社会科学规划2023年度人才研究专项"强化粤港澳大湾区'一点两地'新定位人才支撑的策略研究"(项目编号:GD23RCZ01)的阶段研究成果.
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