中美战略竞争影响中国—东盟产业合作的四重逻辑与现实效应OACHSSCD

Currently,Sino-U.S.competition has evolved into a comprehensive strategic rivalry spanning trade,technology,global governance,and geostrategy.This strategic competition has not only accelerated the restructuring of global supply chains but is also profoundly reshaping the landscape of international industrial cooperation,particularly exerting a systemic impact on China-ASEAN industrial collaboration.Drawing on traditional theories of international industrial cooperation,this paper proposes a four-fold theoretical logic framework to analyze how great power competition in the domains of trade,technology,global governance,and geostrategy influences regional industrial cooperation.It then examines the empirical effects of U.S.-China strategic competition on China-ASEAN industrial cooperation.Theoretically,great power strategic competition influences regional industrial cooperation through four dimensions:market logic,technological logic,institutional logic,and bloc logic.Trade competition,which intervenes in market access via tariff and non-tariff barriers,constitutes the most direct and explicit pathway affecting regional industrial cooperation.Technological competition drives a strategic and long-term restructuring of the industrial cooperation landscape.Global governance competition,primarily through rule-making and institutional arrangements,exerts systemic influences on regional industrial cooperation at the architecture level.Geostrategic competition,by leveraging geopolitical instruments to steer regional countries toward preferential alignment,shapes the trajectory of regional industrial cooperation in an indirect yet profound manner.Empirically,Sino-U.S.trade competition has triggered notable trade diversion and investment diversion effects:trade diversion has strengthened China's trade dependence on ASEAN countries,while investment diversion has promoted deeper industrial chain integration between the two sides.The U.S."small yard,high fence"technology strategy has stimulated China's independent innovation in critical technologies and advanced China-ASEAN cooperation in high-tech industries.Meanwhile,China has actively participated in global governance and enhanced its discourse power in international rule-making,thereby creating a more favorable institutional environment for China-ASEAN industrial cooperation.However,the United States' economic binding strategies and security alliances in ASEAN countries have imposed significant external constraints on China-ASEAN industrial collaboration.Looking ahead,to further strengthen China-ASEAN industrial cooperation,China may consider tapping deeper cooperation potential with ASEAN countries in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence,5G/6G,and clean energy,so as to foster an emerging industrial ecosystem featuring regional interconnectivity and complementary strengths.Building on the China-ASEAN FTA 3.0,both sides could jointly dismantle cross-border trade and investment barriers and expand cooperation space for regional industrial and supply chains.Strategic planning and layout should be optimized,with tailored cooperation areas and implementation modalities designed to accommodate the development stages,resource endowments,specific demands,and risk tolerance of individual ASEAN member states.Furthermore,deeper integration into regional and global industrial governance mechanisms will help forge regional consensus with ASEAN countries in emerging governance domains including AI ethics,cross-border data security,and low-carbon technology certification,thereby building a stable and predictable institutional environment for sustained bilateral cooperation.