数字经济驱动城市碳减排的系统仿真与情景模拟研究OACHSSCD

To explore the complexity and dynamics of the relationship between the digital economy and urban carbon emissions,it is es-sential to scientifically understand the inherent evolutionary mechanisms of the system and the interactions among its components.Based on an analysis of the coupling mechanism between the digital economy and urban carbon emissions,this study integrates the mul-tidimensional impact pathways of the digital economy on carbon emissions through social,industrial,and energy-related factors.A sys-tem dynamics model of the digital economy-urban carbon emissions system is constructed and applied to Qingdao City for simulation a-nalysis.The results indicate that the digital economy can significantly reduce urban carbon emissions,carbon emission intensity,and total energy consumption through four synergistic pathways:industrial structure optimization,energy structure transformation,energy intensity reduction,and guidance of residents'energy consumption behaviors.Among these pathways,energy structure transformation serves as the core pathway for emission reduction.Scenario simulations reveal that the balanced development scenario achieves both the greatest emission reduction effectiveness and the highest robustness of implementation pathways.Accordingly,this study suggests that cities should promote the digital transformation of energy systems,enhance the synergy between industrial digitalization and energy effi-ciency improvement,and establish dual-control mechanisms for carbon emissions alongside digital accounting systems.