未来气候变化下黑龙江省人工林碳储量预测OA
Carbon Storage Projection of Plantations in Heilongjiang Province under Future Climate Change
为量化环境因子与人为管理对黑龙江省人工针叶林与阔叶林碳储量的影响,并预测其未来碳汇潜力,以期为区域森林碳汇精细化管控、适应性经营策略制定提供科学支撑.结合长期固定样地调查数据和林分收获表,筛选无管理样地,采用随机森林方法分析环境因子对碳储量的影响,进而量化"管理影响系数"以定量评估管理措施的效应,并模拟2020-2060年不同气候与管理情景下的碳储量动态.结果表明,环境驱动呈现显著树种差异,针叶林主要受水分因子和极端高温控制,阔叶林则对低温与热量更为敏感;管理措施对碳汇提升作用显著,且效应因树种和立地而异,阔叶林对管理的响应比针叶林更为敏感,高地位级林分通过优化管理可实现最高23%的碳储量提升;未来预测显示,优化管理在共享社会经济路径2-4.5情景(shared socioeconomic pathway 2-4.5,SSP2-4.5,代表中等排放情景)情景下起"增益"作用,可使碳密度提升18.5～23.8 Mg/hm2,而在共享社会经济路径3-7.0情景(shared socioeconomic pathway 3-7.0,SSP3-7.0,代表高排放情景)情景下发挥"减损"作用,可避免16.4～20.7 Mg/hm2的碳汇损失.在黑龙江省人工林经营中,优化管理是提升并稳定区域碳汇功能的关键途径.建议采取差异化策略,在气候胁迫增强的背景下,优先对人工针叶林及高立地林分实施适应性管理,以最大程度发挥其长期固碳潜力.
This study quantified the impact of environmental factors and human management on the carbon storage of co-niferous and broadleaf plantations in Heilongjiang Province,and predicted their future carbon sink potential,aiming to provide a scientific basis for the precise management of regional forest carbon sink.Long-term fixed plot survey data and standard stand yield tables were integrated to screen unmanaged sample plots.Random Forest was employed to analyze the impact of environmental factors on carbon storage.A"management impact coefficient"was subsequently quantified to assess the effect of management practices.Finally,carbon storage dynamics from 2020 to 2060 were simulated under various climate change and management scenarios.The results indicated that,environmental drivers exhibited signifi-cant species-specific differences:carbon storage in coniferous plantations was primarily controlled by moisture availabil-ity and extreme high temperatures,whereas broadleaf plantations were more sensitive to low temperatures and accumu-lated heat.Management practices significantly enhanced carbon sink,with their effectiveness varying by species and site quality.Broadleaf plantations demonstrated greater responsiveness to management interventions than coniferous stands.On high-quality sites,intensive management increased carbon storage by up to 23%.Future projections revealed that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario,intensive management primarily acted as a"gain"function,increasing carbon density by 18.5-23.8 Mg/hm2.Conversely,under the SSP3-7.0 scenario,its role shifted to"loss reduction",preventing carbon sink losses of 16.4-20.7 Mg/hm2.Optimized forest management is crucial for enhancing and stabilizing the carbon sink function of plantations in Heilongjiang Province.A differentiated management strategy is recommended:under increas-ing climatic stress,priority should be given to implementing adaptive management in coniferous plantations and those on high-quality sites to maximize their long-term carbon sequestration potential.
董芳慧;王斌
东北林业大学 林学院,哈尔滨 150040东北林业大学 林学院,哈尔滨 150040||森林生态系统可持续经营教育部重点实验室(东北林业大学),哈尔滨 150040
农业科技
人工林气候变化经营管理随机森林碳储量森林资源清查数据黑龙江省碳密度
Plantation forestclimate changeforest managementrandom forestcarbon storageforest inventory dataHeilongjiang Provincecarbon density
《森林工程》 2026 (4)
694-706,13
"十四五"国家重点研发计划课题(2023YFD2201704).
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