黄河流域九省(区)生态韧性演变情况及影响因素研究OA

In order to reveal the spatio-temporal evolution of ecological resilience and its main influencing factors in the Yellow River Basin,and provide theoretical bases for the sustainable development of ecosystem and ecological environment governance in the Yellow River Basin,this paper took 2013-2023 as the research period,constructed the evaluation index system of ecosystem resilience,and used the entropy weight-TOPSIS method to measure the ecological resilience level of nine provinces(regions)in the Yellow River Basin.The Global Moran's index was used to analyze the spatial autocorrelation of ecological resilience,the Dagum Gini coefficient was used to reveal regional differ-ences in ecological resilience,and the random forest model was used to identify the main influencing factors of ecological resilience.The re-sults show that:a)At the beginning of the study period,the ecological resilience levels of the nine provinces(regions)in the Yellow River Basin varied significantly,with particularly large disparities between upstream and downstream provinces(regions).During the study period,most provinces(regions)showed an upward trend in ecological resilience levels.Among them,Sichuan,Gansu,Henan,and Shandong ex-hibited a significant upward trend,while Qinghai,Ningxia,Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,and Shanxi showed no obvious upward trend or experi-enced considerable fluctuations.Although inter-provincial disparities in ecological resilience levels narrowed by the end of the study period,the overall resilience remained generally low.b)The level of ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin had a certain spatial autocorrela-tion,but the spatial autocorrelation was significantly weakened in the study period.c)Forest coverage rate,the level of industrial structure advancement,the water consumption rate of the ecological environment,the rationalization level of the industrial structure,and the proportion of infrastructure investment in fiscal expenditure were the main factors affecting the ecological resilience of the Yellow River Basin at present.SO2 emissions per unit area,COD emissions per unit area,and the intensity of soil and water conservation investment remained non-negligible due to their historical significance.This study recommends increasing financial support to economically underdeveloped areas and ecologically fragile areas,vigorously promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of the economy,strengthening the unified allocation of water resources,and improving the efficiency of water resources utilization.