中国城市老旧住房的建筑存量估算及更新价值提升分析OA

Accurate estimation of old residential building stock and its associated property value is the basic objective of urban renewal planning.In China,rapid urbanization has produced a substantial legacy of residential housing constructed before 2000,yet comprehensive estimates of the old residential building stock and its economic value at the national city scale remain scarce.This gap in the literature limits the development of differentiated renewal strategies and efficient resource allocation across cities.To address this issue,this study develops a city-level assessment framework by integrating multiple data sources,including pre-2000 built-up area boundaries,official statistical yearbooks,high-resolution remote sensing imagery,and housing transaction records from real estate platforms.Using this framework,we estimated the total floor area and property value of old residential housing(constructed before 2000 and still extant)across 611 Chinese cities.We further evaluated the potential value uplift from urban renewal under a hypothetical 15％appreciation scenario while explicitly incorporating inter-city population mobility as a key factor.Based on these estimates,we examined the spatial heterogeneity of old residential building stock,housing asset value,and urban renewal potential across cities of different sizes and regions.The main findings are as follows:(1)The total old residential building stock across 611 cities is estimated at approximately 3 605 078 700 m2,revealing both its enormous scale and pronounced spatial concentration.The national old residential building stock is highly concentrated in a relatively small number of super-large megacities,which together account for a disproportionately large share of the national total.Marked regional differences have been observed in the historical pace of demolition and redevelopment.Eastern cities exhibited the highest demolition rates,whereas northeastern cities had the lowest rates.From a north-south perspective,southern cities are characterized by both relatively high demolition rates and large remaining stocks,whereas northern cities generally display lower demolition rates and smaller remaining stocks,reflecting distinct development trajectories and policy implementation.(2)The total property value of old residential housing is estimated at approximately 480 293.77 billion yuan,with inter-city disparities in asset value substantially exceeding those in physical building stock.This finding indicates that identical residential floor areas may possess markedly different economic values depending on local housing markets and regional economic conditions.Under the 15％appreciation scenario,after accounting for net population migration,super-large and megacities experiencing sustained population inflows are projected to achieve considerable value gains through urban renewal,whereas small-and medium-sized cities facing population decline exhibit much weaker appreciation potential.These results suggest that the economic benefits of urban renewal depend not only on physical redevelopment but also on demographic dynamics and effective housing demand.(3)Cities of different sizes face distinct renewal challenges and require different policy strategies.In super-large and megacities,the principal constraints arise from the massive scale of old residential building stock,fragmented property rights structures,and increasing pressure on urban governance and infrastructure systems.By contrast,old residential housing in small and medium-sized cities generally has weaker asset attributes and lower market liquidity.Consequently,renewal efforts in these cities should prioritize improvements in residential living conditions and public welfare,rather than asset-oriented redevelopment.Overall,this study highlights the importance of regional differences in urban renewal strategies that jointly consider the distribution of old residential building stocks,housing market conditions,and demographic changes,thereby providing a scientific basis for differentiated urban renewal policies in China.