基于DSSAT模型的张掖制种玉米参数敏感性分析OA

To explore the growth requirements of hybrid seed maize in Zhangye,Gansu Province,a sensitivity analysis was carried out on the parameters of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer(DSSAT-CERES-Maize)model.The value ranges of the maize model parameters were defined,and the factor levels were determined according to these ranges.Maize growth simulations were performed for different growth stages,with a focus on investigating the effects of each parameter on maize yield and leaf area index(LAI),so as to screen out the optimal growth parameters applicable to the hybrid seed maize model.Comprehensive analysis of the simulation results indicates that among the genetic parameters,G3(potential maximum grain-filling rate)and P5(accumulated temperature from silking to physiological maturity)show the highest sensitivity to yield;specifically,G3 can cause the yield to fluctuate between 6040 kg·hm-2 and 12922 kg·hm-2.P1(accumulated temperature during the photoperiod-insensitive seedling stage)and PHINT(phyllochron interval)are sensitive to LAI,and P1 can increase LAI from 2.9 to 6.1.Among the soil parameters,the root growth factor(SRGF)and soil fertility coefficient(SLPF)have significant impacts on both yield and LAI;SRGF can increase the yield by 9348.49 kg·hm-2.In addition,to avoid yield reduction,the soil albedo(SALB)should be≤0.17 and the soil drainage rate(SLDR)should be≤0.66.This study clarifies the key sensitive parameters affecting the yield and LAI of hybrid seed maize in Zhangye,which provides technical support for the localization of the DSSAT model and the precise production of hybrid seed maize in the arid areas of Northwest China.