甘南农牧区家畜生产系统碳收支动态模拟研究OA
Dynamic Simulation of Carbon Budget in Livestock Production Systems in Gannan Agricultural and Pastoral Area
为探明甘南藏族自治州家畜生产系统碳排放与碳吸收的时空差异及其关键影响因素,论文构建"排放—吸收—平衡"研究框架,为区域家畜生产系统碳收支评估提供理论依据.基于研究区1991-2023年统计数据、区域碳排放和碳吸收系数,采用碳足迹生命周期评估方法,评估研究区内主要家畜牛、羊、猪的碳排放和碳吸收,构建不同载畜强度下碳收支动态演化的系统动力学模型.结果表明:2010-2023年甘南地区家畜生产系统温室气体排放、草地与家畜碳吸收均呈缓慢上升趋势,区域整体保持净碳汇状态,其中饲料生产和肠道发酵是主要排放源;县域碳收支差异显著,高海拔草地牧区因固碳能力强而表现出较大的净碳汇,但在高放牧压力下存在由碳汇向碳源转变的风险.未来30年研究区碳平衡演化存在差异性,玛曲县在无干预情景下可能由碳汇逐步转为碳源,而合作市则具有由碳源向碳汇逆转的潜力.甘南家畜生产系统碳收支受海拔与载畜压力共同驱动,表现出显著的非线性动态特征,构建"排放-吸收-平衡"框架可有效刻画区域家畜生产系统的碳循环机制,为农牧区低碳转型提供科学依据.
To investigate the spatiotemporal differences and key influencing factors of carbon emissions and carbon absorption in the livestock production system of Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,this study constructs a research framework of"emission-absorption-balance"to provide a theoretical basis for assessing the carbon budget of regional livestock production systems.Based on statistical data from the study area from 1991 to 2023,as well as regional carbon emission and carbon absorption coefficients,the carbon footprint life cycle assessment method was employed to evaluate the carbon emissions and carbon absorption of the main livestock species-cattle,sheep,and pigs-in the study area.A system dynamics model for the dynamic evolution of the carbon budget under different grazing intensities was also construc-ted.The results indicate that from 2010 to 2023,both greenhouse gas emissions from the livestock produc-tion system and carbon absorption by grasslands and livestock in the Gannan region showed a slowly in-creasing trend,with the region as a whole maintaining a net carbon sink status.Feed production and enter-ic fermentation were identified as the main sources of emissions.Significant differences in carbon budgets were observed across counties.High-altitude pastoral areas exhibited a larger net carbon sink due to their strong carbon sequestration capacity,but under high grazing pressure,there is a risk of transitioning from a carbon sink to a carbon source.Over the next 30 years,differences in the evolution of the carbon balance in the study area are expected.Under a no-intervention scenario,Maqu County may gradually shift from a carbon sink to a carbon source,while Hezuo City has the potential to reverse from a carbon source to a car-bon sink.The carbon budget of the livestock production system in Gannan is jointly driven by altitude and grazing pressure,exhibiting significant nonlinear dynamic characteristics.The construction of the"emis-sion-absorption-balance"framework can effectively characterize the carbon cycling mechanism of regional livestock production systems and provide a scientific basis for the low-carbon transformation of agricultural and pastoral areas.
姜越;李薇;燕振刚
甘肃农业大学信息科学技术学院,甘肃兰州 730070甘肃农业大学财经学院,甘肃兰州 730070甘肃农业大学信息科学技术学院,甘肃兰州 730070
农业科技
家畜生产系统碳收支生命周期评估系统动力学模型甘南农牧区
livestock production systemcarbon budgetlife cycle assessmentsystem dynamics mod-elGannan agro-pastoral region
《家畜生态学报》 2026 (8)
77-87,11
甘肃省科技计划项目软科学专项(23JRZA450)甘肃省高校教师创新基金项目(2023B-081)甘肃省重点研发计划项目(21YF5FA095)
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