基于IPSO算法优化的CNN-LSTM模型及其输电线路覆冰厚度预测方法研究OA
Study on CNN-LSTM Model Optimized by IPSO Algorithm and Its Method for Predicting Ice Thickness on Transmission Lines
为实时评估复杂气象环境下输电线路覆冰厚度对电力系统安全运行的影响,本文提出一种融合卷积神经网络(Convolutional Neural Networks,CNN)与长短期记忆网络(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)的智能预测模型,并通过改进粒子群优化算法(Improved Particle Swarm Optimization,IPSO)实现对混合神经网络模型内部超参数的自主寻优,构建一个面向输电线路覆冰厚度的精准预测模型.研究结果表明:IPSO算法能够有效提高粒子的全局搜索能力,适应度寻优幅度较粒子群优化(Particle Swarm Optimization,PSO)算法和蜣螂优化(Dung Beetle Optimizer,DBO)算法分别提升46.4%和51.9%.对比其他模型,IPSO-CNN-LSTM混合模型在测试集上的预测表现最佳,其ERMSE、EMAPE值分别为0.408 3 mm和3.132 6%,预测精度显著提升.相关系数R2保持在0.960 8,说明模型的预测值和实际值具有高度相关性,数据解释能力强.在工程应用上,模型预测结果可为电力系统防冻融冰提供可靠的数据和决策支撑.
To evaluate in real-time the safety impact of ice thickness on transmission lines under complex meteorological conditions on power systems,this paper proposes an intelligent prediction model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks(CNN)and Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)networks.The Improved Particle Swarm Optimization(IPSO)algorithm is employed to automatically optimize the hyperparameters within the hybrid neural network model,constructing an accurate prediction model for ice thickness on transmission lines.The research results show that the IPSO algorithm can effectively enhance the global search ability of particles,the fitness optimization amplitude is increased by 46.4%and 51.9%compared with the PSO algorithm and the DBO algorithm respectively.Compared with other models,the IPSO-CNN-LSTM hybrid model shows the best prediction performance on the test set,with ERMSE and EMAPE values of 0.408 3 mm and 3.132 6%,respectively,indicating a significant improvement in prediction accuracy.The correlation coefficient R² remains at 0.960 8,demonstrating a high correlation between predicted and actual values and strong data interpretability.In engineering applications,the prediction results of the model can provide reliable data and decision support for the prevention of freezing and thawing of power systems.
聂汉文;顾崧民;易金桥
湖北民族大学智能科学与工程学院,湖北 恩施 445000湖北民族大学智能科学与工程学院,湖北 恩施 445000湖北民族大学智能科学与工程学院,湖北 恩施 445000
信息技术与安全科学
输电线路覆冰厚度预测IPSOCNN-LSTM神经网络
transmission linesice thickness predictionIPSOCNN-LSTM neural network
《湖北电力》 2025 (5)
25-34,10
湖北省自然科学基金项目(项目编号2024AFD069)恩施州"赶超计划"科技计划项目(项目编号:D20230007).
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