老年人吞咽障碍风险预测模型的研究进展OA

Dysphagia has become one of the important problems threatening the health of the elderly.It can lead to serious complications such as aspiration,pneumonia,dehydration and malnutrition,and significantly increase the disability rate,hospitalization rate,and mortality rate of the elderly.Early identification of high-risk populations is the key to achieve effective intervention.By integrating multi-dimensional risk factors,clinical prediction models can achieve quantitative assessment of individual risks and provide scientific basis for early screening and management of dysphagia.In recent years,scholars at home and abroad have constructed a number of clinical prediction models of dysphagia that are suitable for the general elderly population and the elderly with specific diseases(such as stroke,Parkinson's disease,dementia,etc.).Most of the models show good discrimination and calibration,which have high clinical reference value.However,the existing models still face multiple challenges:the study subjects,modeling methods,included risk factors,diagnostic criteria,and outcome definitions are not uniform.Most of the studies were single-center designs,with limited sample size and lack of external validation and dynamic update.The clinical translation and application of the model are insufficient,which makes it difficult to be truly integrated into the clinical decision-making process.Based on this,this paper reviews the research progress of universal and specific risk prediction models for dysphagia in the elderly at home and abroad in recent years,focusing on comparing their research methods,included risk factors,model performance and validation,and analyzing the advantages and limitations of existing models,in order to provide a reference for the construction,optimization,and clinical application of dysphagia risk prediction models for the elderly in China.