河北省县域人口老龄化与养老资源配置研究OACHSSCD

Exploring the spatial matching relationship between population aging and elderly care resources in counties with different aging types is of great significance for formulating elderly care strategies in accordance with local conditions.Taking 167 counties in Hebei Province as the research objects,based on the data from the fifth and seventh national population censuses and multi-source data of elderly care resources,a two-dimensional indicator system of aging degree-aging speed is constructed to divide aging types,the linear weighting model is applied to measure the allocation level of elderly care resources,and the matching degree coefficient is adopted to analyze the spatial matching pattern of the two.The research findings:1)Population flow and fertility rate changes caused by regional differences in economic development have formed a dual pattern of aging characterized by"deep degree and rapid speed in peripheral areas,and shallow degree and slow speed in core areas".2)The allocation of elderly care resources is highly correlated with the level of economic development:developed counties are abundant in resources,while underdeveloped counties lack sufficient resources.3)The overall spatial matching degree between elderly care resources and population aging in the whole province is relatively low,with coexistence of resource surplus in developed regions and resource shortage in underdeveloped regions,and the contradiction between supply and demand is the most prominent in rapid-aging and rapid-super-aging counties.This study concludes that the superposition effect of aging degree and aging speed is the core driving force for the spatial differentiation of elderly care burden,and the allocation of elderly care resources has failed to respond to the dynamic process of population aging.Introducing the perspective of aging speed helps to identify hidden risks overlooked by static analysis,and provides a scientific basis for the precise allocation of elderly care resources.