农村基本养老金与家庭生育激励OACHSSCD

Within the overlapping generations framework,the basic pensions of elderly adults help reallocate household economic and time resources,thereby shifting family relations from in-tergenerational competition to intergenerational sharing and,in turn,generating a significant fer-tility-enhancing effect.To examine this mechanism,this study draws on six waves of rural household panel data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),spanning 2012 to 2022,and employs a fuzzy regression discontinuity design that approximates a natural experiment for causal identification and effect evaluation.The results show that,compared with households in which elderly adults do not receive rural basic pensions,households with pension recipients exhibit a statistically significant increase in fertility,with an average rise of 7.45 percentage points.Pen-sion income significantly reduces labor force participation among elderly adults while increasing their likelihood of engaging in grandparental childcare.This pattern can be explained by plausible underlying mechanisms,and the effect is found to be more pronounced in regions where the cost of childbearing is relatively low.In light of these findings,it is essential to improve both old-age security and fertility subsidy policies so as to better harness their synergistic coupling in fostering a fertility-friendly society.