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人工智能、经济增长与区域差距:简约式证据与量化空间模型估计OACHSSCD

Artificial Intelligence,Economic Growth and Regional Disparities:Reduced-Form Evidence and Quantitative Spatial Model

中文摘要英文摘要

当前,中国的区域经济发展分化态势明显.在此背景下,人工智能的快速渗透会给各地经济增长和区域差距带来什么影响?为了回答该问题,本文首先建立差分模型,给出简约式的证据.研究发现,人工智能对经济增长有显著的促进作用,如果处于25%分位的城市采用与75%分位城市一样的人工智能渗透率,则其GDP的增长率提高约1.4个百分点.该结论在进行一系列稳健性检验及处理内生性问题后仍成立.为进一步分析人工智能对各个区域的异质性影响及总体经济效应,本文构建了一个多区域量化空间模型.模拟分析表明:人工智能会提高一个地区的就业、工资与产出,降低其生产成本与价格,促进该地与其他区域的贸易和劳动力流动;如果每个区域都受到相同的人工智能冲击,则全国GDP和福利水平会上升,但与此同时,由于各地对冲击的响应不同,区域之间人均产出的差距将拉大.

China's regional economic development is clearly differentiated and the polarization phenomenon is prominent at the present.What impact does the rapid penetration of artificial intelligence(AI)bring to economic growth and regional disparities in this context?This paper applies a difference model to identify the reduced-form relationship between AI and economic growth by using city-level data.It finds that AI significantly boosts economic growth.This conclusion is robust to a series of sensitivity tests and to the way dealing with endogeneity issues.In order to further analyze the impact of AI on regional as well as national economies,a multi-region quantitative spatial model is developed.The simulation analysis shows that AI increases employment,wages,and per capita output while reduces its production costs and prices in the region shocked.AI also facilitates trade and migration among regions.If each region adopts the same rate of AI penetration,national GDP and welfare both increase,but regional disparities in output per capita widens at the same time.

陈安平

暨南大学经济学院

数理科学

人工智能经济增长区域差距量化空间模型

《经济学报》 2026 (2)

149-167,19

本研究受国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于量化空间模型和多维识别的人工智能区域经济效应及机制研究"(编号:72373047)的资助

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