考虑碳强度与活动数据不确定性的特高压输电线路建设碳排放核算方法OA

Ultra-high voltage(UHV)transmission lines constitute critical infrastructure for China's energy strategy.Compared with conventional voltage-level lines,they exhibit characteristics such as nonlinear growth in resource and capital consumption,complex supply chains,and strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity in carbon emission factors in time and space.Their construction phase involves substantial carbon emissions with significant uncertainties,making accurate accounting essential for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals in the power sector.To address key challenges,including ambiguous system boundaries,inadequate characterization of input parameter uncertainty,and insufficient cross-year applicability of carbon emission input-output intensity during the construction stage of UHV transmission lines,a carbon emission accounting model based on hybrid life cycle assessment(HLCA)was established by defining the accounting boundary with budget estimate quota.For traceable carbon emission sources,the process-based life cycle assessment(PLCA)method was used,with uncertainty analysis conducted through distribution fitting and Monte Carlo simulation.For hard-to-trace carbon emission sources,the input-output life cycle assessment(IO-LCA)method was adopted,with temporal corrections applied to carbon emission intensity.Taking a±800 kV transmission line as a case study,the calculation results showed that the carbon emission intensity during the construction phase was calculated to be 1 858.91 t·km−1(in carbon dioxide equivalent),with a 95％confidence interval of[1 379.73,2 486.45]t·km−1.Key emission-reduction pathways for UHV construction were identified using Sobol global sensitivity analysis,and the scientific validity and practical value of the method were verified by comparing with the existing studies.This research can provide methodological support and a quantitative basis for low-carbon design,construction-organization optimization,and carbon-emission verification and assessment of UHV transmission projects.