1990～2021年海南省青少年抑郁症疾病负担:年龄和性别特异性时间趋势及10年预测OA

Objective:To analyze the trends in the disease burden of depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years in Hainan Province from 1990 to 2021,identify risk factors,and predict future trends.Methods:Data from the 2021 Global Burden of Dis-ease(GBD)study for Hainan Province were utilized.Joinpoint software was used to analyze the trends in the incidence and disabil-ity-adjusted life year(DALY)of depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2021.A time series model was es-tablished using R software to predict the incidence and DALY rates of depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years in Hainan Province from 2022 to 2031.Results:From 1990 to 2021,the incidence and DALY rates of depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years in Hainan Province showed a declining trend,with decreases of 15.29%and 0.53%,respectively.There were signifi-cant gender differences in the trends of disease burden,with females having significantly higher incidence and DALY rates than males(P<0.001).Adolescents aged 20-24 years had higher incidence and DALY rates compared to those aged 15-19 and 10-14 years(P<0.001).Child abuse and bullying victimization were identified as major risk factors for depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years in Hainan Province.Additionally,intimate partner violence was the third major risk factor for females compared to males.The ARIMA model predicts a gradual upward trend in the incidence and DALY rates of depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years in Hainan Province from 2022 to 2031.Conclusions:From 1990 to 2021,the overall disease burden of depres-sion among adolescents aged 10-24 years in Hainan Province showed a declining trend.However,a slight increase in disease bur-den is expected over the next decade.Females and adolescents aged 10-14 years should be the focus of depression prevention and control efforts,with continued emphasis on early detection and intervention.