Maternal individuality matters:Disentangling individual variation in regeneration contributions to guide precision conservation of endangered speciesOA

Understanding the drivers of regeneration failure is essential for conserving endangered plant species.Tradi-tional conservation often overlooks individual variation within populations,potentially masking critical de-terminants of recruitment success.Here,we investigated the role of maternal reproductive variation in shaping regeneration potential in Pinus dabeshanensis,a critically endangered conifer endemic to central China.We focused on the seed-to-dispersal phase of regeneration,quantifying individual“regeneration contribution”as the product of successful dispersal rate and total mature seed production.Through three years of intensive moni-toring of 88 P.dabeshanensis adult trees,we documented extreme inter-individual variation in reproductive output:55 trees(62.5%)failed to produce any seeds during the three-year study period,while among the 33 reproductive individuals,seed production varied over 300-fold(38-11,195 seeds per tree),abortion rates ranged from 30%to 87%,and mature seed output differed by 1000-fold(5-5029 seeds).Remarkably,just six trees(7%of the population)contributed over 70%of all mature seeds.Using standardized ex situ seed dispersal experi-ments,we further examined how this variation influenced seed fate among the five most productive trees.Critically,these trees disproportionately influenced potential recruitment:the top producer contributed 113 successfully dispersed seeds,compared to only 44 and 45 from lower-yielding individuals.Our findings demonstrate that extreme reproductive skew among maternal trees,rather than population-wide seed predation or dispersal limitation,drives regeneration potential in this endangered species.This study establishes an individual-based framework for precision conservation,advocating for targeted management of high-yielding“dominant mother”trees to optimize resource allocation and enhance recovery of P.dabeshanensis and other endangered plants facing similar recruitment challenges.