Photovoltaic power potential of variability and its influencing factors in Xinjiang,ChinaOA

Quantifying the evolution of solar photovoltaic power potential in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(hereinafter referred as to Xinjiang)is critical for energy planning under China''s carbon neutrality goals.This study applied the Equidistant Cumulative Distribution Function Matching(EDCDFm)method to correct biases in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)multi-model data,using the fifth generation of European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Reanalysis-Land(ERA5-Land)as a reference.Corrected data were used to drive 11 widely validated empirical photovoltaic models to evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution of photovoltaic power potential in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2060.The results showed that average annual power potential from 2000 to 2020 was 282.29 kWh/m^(2),with higher values in the south and lower in the north and a slight decreasing trend.In terms of future forecasting,compared with historical baseline period,photovoltaic power potential increased slightly under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)1-2.6 scenario,with about 79.41%of the land area showing favorable conditions of increased photovoltaic power potential and reduced coefficient of variation(CV).In contrast,under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,unfavorable pattern of decreased photovoltaic power potential and increased CV expanded significantly,covering about 24.66%and 37.65%of the total area,respectively.Analysis of influencing factors showed that solar radiation was the dominant factor controlling photovoltaic power potential,while rising temperature had a negative effect.Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,reduced solar radiation and rising temperature were the main factors driving the decline in photovoltaic power potential.At the regional level,although the central area currently had relatively low potential,it shows a decreasing CV and continuously increasing photovoltaic power potential in the future,indicating better conditions for development.Economic analysis showed that,under standard carbon price,the levelized cost of electricity(LCOE)on the SSP1-2.6 path was the lowest,yielding significant net social benefits.This study indicates that pursuing a sustainable development path is a key to mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change,providing scientific reference for medium-and long-term photovoltaic installation planning in Xinjiang.