聚焦中国—东盟:进出口贸易结构变化与贸易增长OACHSSCD
The structural changes and trade growth in China-ASEAN import and export trade under the multi-sectoral economic model and the shift-share model
在全球价值链重构与区域经济一体化加速的背景下,中国—东盟的贸易关系已成为亚太地区经济增长的核心动力之一.使用多部门经济模型和偏离—份额模型,测度了 2016-2023年中国—东盟进出口贸易产业结构动态变化对进出口贸易增长的贡献率及其偏离—份额,构建计量模型检验了中国—东盟进出口贸易结构对贸易总额的边际效率.结果表明:2016-2023年中国—东盟进出口贸易结构变迁与贸易增长特征复杂多样,多部门经济模型下,多数国家产业结构调整与贸易总值增长同步性明显,但不同国家产业结构动态变化对经济增长贡献差异显著.各个国家工业、农业和服务业贸易产业偏离份额和竞争力偏离份额表现不同.进出口贸易总值增长受多种因素影响,且不同国家贸易增长动力来源有别.基于上述结论,提出建议:在提高中国对东盟贸易量策略方面.挖掘服务业贸易潜力,稳定服务出口;巩固工业贸易基础,针对不同国家制定工业贸易策略;稳定农业贸易规模,满足农业大国需求,扩大进口.在优化中国对东盟贸易结构的策略方面.提升服务业在贸易中的比重;促进工业贸易向高端化升级,加强技术创新合作;保持农业贸易特色与优势,发展特色农业贸易.
Against the backdrop of global value chain restructuring and accelerated regional economic integration,trade relations of China-ASEAN have become one of the core drivers of economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region.Using a multi sector economy and deviation share model,the contribution rate and deviation share of the dynamic changes in the industrial structure of China-ASEAN import and export trade to the growth of import and export trade from 2016 to 2023 were measured.An econometric model was construc-ted to test the marginal efficiency of the China-ASEAN import and export trade structure on the total trade volume.The results showed that:The structural changes and trade growth characteristics of China-ASEAN import and export trade from 2016 to 2023 were com-plex and diverse.Under the multi sector economic model,the synchronization between industrial structure adjustment and trade value growth was obvious in most countries,but the contribution of dynamic changes in industrial structure to economic growth varied signifi-cantly among different countries.The deviation shares and competitiveness deviation share of industrial,agricultural,and service trade industries varied among countries.The growth of the total value of import and export trade was influenced by various factors,and the driving force of trade growth varied among different countries.Based on the above conclusion,it was suggested to improve China's trade volume strategy with ASEAN:Explore the potential of service industry trade and stabilize service exports;Consolidate the foundation of industrial trade and formulate industrial trade strategies for different countries;Stabilize the scale of agricultural trade,meet the needs of major agricultural countries,and expand imports.In terms of optimizing China's trade structure with ASEAN:Enhance the proportion of the service industry in trade;Promote the upgrading of industrial trade towards high-end and strengthen cooperation in technological innovation;Maintain the characteristics and advantages of agricultural trade,and develop characteristic agricultural trade.
姜国珍
北部湾大学经济管理学院北部湾海洋发展研究中心,广西钦州 535011
管理科学
贸易结构贸易增长多部门经济模型偏离份额模型中国—东盟
trade structuretrade growthmulti-sectoral economic modelshift-share modelChina-ASEAN
《资源开发与市场》 2026 (6)
880-889,10
广西高校人文社会科学重点研究基地"北部湾海洋发展研究中心"项目资助.
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