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基于PMC指数模型的中国能源政策量化评价OACHSSCD

Research on Quantitative Evaluation of China's Energy Policy Based on the PMC Index Model

中文摘要英文摘要

[目的/意义]能源安全是国家经济健康发展的基石,而能源政策是能源安全的保障.本文旨在系统把握我国能源政策的演化特征、内部结构一致性及政策实施效能,为优化我国能源政策体系提供理论依据.[方法/过程]首先,对改革开放以来的中央能源政策文本进行挖掘,依据高频词和共现网络分析能源政策的基本特征和演化过程,并构建政策一致性(policy modeling consistency,PMC)指数评价指标体系.其次,对2021-2024年的351项能源政策文本进行量化评价.[结果/结论]研究发现:①我国能源政策历经"供应生产安全—结构调整—绿色低碳转型"三阶段演进,长期聚焦管理、技术研发与能源安全,电力行业始终是政策核心关切领域,愈发聚焦可再生能源利用、储能技术革新和智能化提升,但当前能源风险应对政策存在明显滞后;②等级评价呈现"中间多,两头少"的特征,351 项能源政策中 6 项优秀、204 项良好、141 项可接受、0 项不良,整体表现优异,但有改进空间;③能源政策在政策性质、政策结构和政策视角等维度表现较好,但存在激励措施单薄、公众参与度低、政策范围覆盖不全面等问题.建议构建政策协同机制、丰富激励措施、扩大覆盖范围及加强公众参与等多维度举措,全面提升能源政策科学性与实施效能.

[Purpose/Significance]Energy security is the cornerstone of a nation's healthy economic devel-opment,and energy policies serve as its fundamental safeguard.This study aims to systematically analyze the evo-lutionary characteristics,internal structural consistency,and implementation effectiveness of China's energy pol-icies,thereby providing a theoretical basis for optimizing the country's energy policy system.[Method/Process]This study first excavates central energy policy texts since China's reform and opening-up,analyzes the basic char-acteristics and evolutionary process of energy policies through high-frequency word and co-occurrence network analyses,and constructs a Policy Modeling Consistency(PMC)index evaluation system.Subsequently,a quanti-tative assessment is conducted on 351 energy policy texts from 2021 to 2024.[Result/Conclusion]The research reveals three main findings,① China's energy policies have evolved through three stages:"supply-production safety-structural adjustment-green low-carbon transition",with long-term focus on management,technological R&D,and energy security.The power industry has always been the core concern of policies,increasingly focused on renewable energy utilization,energy storage technology innovation,and intelligent upgrading.However,cur-rent energy risk response policies exhibit significant lagging.② The rating evaluation shows a"medium-major-ity,extreme-minority"distribution,among 351 energy policies,6 are excellent,204 good,141 acceptable,and 0 poor,demonstrating overall excellent performance with room for improvement.③ Energy policies perform well in dimensions such as policy nature,structure,and perspective,but suffer from issues like meager incentives,low public participation,and incomplete policy coverage.It is recommended to adopt multi-dimensional measures in-cluding constructing policy coordination mechanisms,enriching incentive types,expanding coverage scope,and strengthening public participation to comprehensively enhance the scientificity and implementation efficiency of energy policies.

陈庭强;田伟霞;王磊

南京工业大学经济与管理学院 南京 211800||中国科学院大学经济与管理学院 北京 100190南京工业大学经济与管理学院 南京 211800南京工业大学经济与管理学院 南京 211800

管理科学

能源政策文本挖掘文本量化分析PMC指数

energy policytext miningquantitative text analysisPMC index

《智库理论与实践》 2026 (3)

60-71,12

本文系国家社会科学基金重大项目"'双碳'目标下能源稳定与金融安全问题研究"(项目编号:22&ZD122)研究成果之一.

10.19318/j.cnki.issn.2096-1634.20250314.0006

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