短期有氧训练改善帕金森病患者双任务步态功能的预测因素分析OA

Objective To construct a prediction model for high responsiveness to short-term aerobic training in patients with Parkin-son's disease(PD)based on dual-task gait assessment,and to provide evidence for identifying individuals who are most likely to benefit from such interventions. Methods A total of 42 patients with PD who visited the outpatient clinic of Tianjin Huanhu Hospital between August 29,2023 and December 19,2024 were enrolled.All participants completed a 4-week home-based aerobic cycling training program and underwent dual-task gait assessments pre-and post-training.Patients were classified into high-response group(n=12)and low-response group(n=30)according to whether the improvement in gait speed reached the minimal clinically important difference of 0.1 m/s.The clinical validity of this grouping was verified by comparing differences in cardiopulmonary exercise testing parameters and dual-task gait indicators between the two groups pre-and post-training.Based on baseline characteristics,Firth's penalized maximum like-lihood logistic regression was applied to construct a predictive model for high responsiveness,and the discrimina-tive performance of the model was assessed preliminarily. Results The high-response group showed significantly greater improvement in gait speed,step length,cadence and the anaerobic threshold to maximal oxygen uptake ratio after training compared with the low-response group(P<0.05),confirming the clinical validity of the grouping.The baseline anaerobic threshold to maximal oxygen up-take ratio(OR=3.348),body mass index(OR=2.229)and age(OR=0.428)demonstrated certain discrimina-tive ability in the present sample.The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.831,with an overall prediction accuracy of 81.0%,specificity of 83.3%and sensitivity of 75.0%.Robustness of the model was confirmed via internal validation using the Bootstrap method,which suggested that the results were informative,but further validation was still required. Conclusion The anaerobic threshold/maximal oxygen uptake ratio,body mass index and age may predict the response to short-term aerobic training in patients with PD.