首页|期刊导航|中国工程科学|面向"四水四定"的"智能监测-风险评价-预警调控"技术构建及应用

面向"四水四定"的"智能监测-风险评价-预警调控"技术构建及应用OA

Construction and Application of"Intelligent Monitoring-Risk Assessment-Early Warning Regulation"for"Defining City,Land,Population,and Industry Based on Water"

中文摘要英文摘要

"四水四定"是我国新时期水资源管理的重要原则,促进"四水四定"从理论到实践的深化应用,需要构建全链条、闭环式的技术框架,以化解水资源短缺与经济社会发展、生态保护的突出矛盾.本文系统解析了"四水四定"的核心内涵,搭建了"智能监测-风险评价-预警调控"技术框架,设计了约束性和预期性"双评价"指标体系,构建了"天空地水工"一体化与"点-面"立体结合方式的智能监测体系,采用"双评价"方法开展了风险评价与预警诊断,进一步提出了以节水增效、控规建制、开源保供为核心的常规和应急双状态响应机制并融入"四水四定"动态预警调控路径.以位于水资源短缺地区的鄂尔多斯市为例开展了实证研究,诊断出风险区预期指标需重点关注以水定地、以水定产部分,据此提出了应对措施建议.研究内容可为贯彻"四水四定"原则、提高节约集约利用水平提供理论范式与实践参考.

The"four water-based controls"principle(i.e.,defining city,land,population,and industry based on water)is a cornerstone of water resource management in China in the new era.To advance its application from theory to practice,a comprehensive,closed-loop technical framework must be established to resolve the critical conflict between water scarcity and socioeconomic development alongside ecological conservation.This study analyzes the core essence of the"four water-based controls"principle,and establishes a"smart monitoring-risk assessment-early warning regulation"technical framework.It also designs a dual-evaluation indicator system combining binding and anticipatory metrics,and constructs a smart monitoring system featuring space-air-ground-water-engineering integration and a three-dimensional"point-area"approach.The dual-evaluation approach is employed to conduct risk assessment and early warning diagnosis.The study further proposes a dual-state response mechanism encompassing both routine and emergency scenarios.This response mechanism centers on water conservation for efficiency enhancement,regulatory control for institutional development,and resource expansion for supply assurance,and is integrated into the dynamic early-warning regulation pathway of the"four water-based controls"framework.An empirical study conducted in Ordos,a water-scarce city,identifies that expected indicators in risk areas require particular attention to the aspects of determining the city's land use and production based on water availability.Based on this,targeted countermeasures are proposed.This study provides a theoretical framework and practical reference for implementing the"four water-based controls"principle and enhancing water conservation and intensive utilization.

李溦;彭少明;王浩;邢西刚;郭旭宁;宋秋波;李云玲;朱永楠;姜瑶卿;刘为锋;李原园

水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京 100120||水利部水利规划与战略研究中心,北京 100120水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京 100120||水利部水利规划与战略研究中心,北京 100120中国水利水电科学研究院,北京 100038水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京 100120||水利部水利规划与战略研究中心,北京 100120水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京 100120||水利部水利规划与战略研究中心,北京 100120水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京 100120||水利部水利规划与战略研究中心,北京 100120水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京 100120||水利部水利规划与战略研究中心,北京 100120中国水利水电科学研究院,北京 100038华北水利水电大学水资源学院,郑州 450000水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京 100120||水利部水利规划与战略研究中心,北京 100120水利部水利水电规划设计总院,北京 100120||水利部水利规划与战略研究中心,北京 100120

建筑与水利

"四水四定"智能监测风险评价预警调控节水增效控规建制开源保供

"four water-based controls"principleintelligent monitoringrisk assessmentearly warning regulationwater conservation for efficiency enhancementregulatory control for institutional developmentresource expansion for supply assurance

《中国工程科学》 2026 (3)

314-327,14

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3206505,2023YFC3206504,2024YFC3211303)国家自然科学基金项目(52509029) The National Key Research and Development Program of China Projects(2023YFC3206505,2023YFC3206504,2024YFC3211303)The National Natural Science Foundation of China Project(52509029)

10.15302/J-SSCAE-2025.10.010

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