气候变化背景下中国四种仲彬草属物种的潜在分布预测OA

Kengyilia species are key components of alpine meadow ecosystems in China.To assess the effects of climate change on their potential distributions,four representative Kengyilia species:K.tahela-cana,K.laxiflora,K.thoroldiana,and K.mutica were selected.An optimized MaxEnt model was then used with occurrence records and environmental variables from multiple periods to project changes in suit-able habitat and centroid migration.The results showed that mean area under the receiver operating charac-teristic curve(AUC)ranged from 0.828 to 0.864,indicating high predictive accuracy.Elevation,tempera-ture seasonality,and annual temperature range were the dominant environmental variables affecting species distributions.Under current climatic conditions,suitable habitats for all four species were concentrated on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and in surrounding alpine regions.Compared with the current region,the areas of suitable habitats for the four species under future climate scenarios show fluctuating changes.The suit-able habitats of K.tahelacana and K.thoroldiana expanded,while those of K.laxiflora and K.mutica contracted.The centroids generally shifted towards the northeast with higher latitudes and altitudes.These shifts were greater under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario.