基于APSIM模型的晋中地区紫花苜蓿产草量及生产持续性研究OA

This study evaluated the long-term forage productivity and production sustainability of alfalfa in the Jinzhong region of Shanxi Province and examined their responses to climatic factors.Field experimental data were used to further validate the ability of the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator(APSIM)model to simulate soil water storage in alfalfa fields.Long-term scenario simulations were then conducted for three widely grown WL-series alfalfa cultivars using 30 years(1985-2014)of historical weather data from multiple sites in the region.The results showed that APSIM satisfactorily simulated soil water storage,with a normalized root mean square error below 20.60%.Sites characterized by high pre-cipitation and low air temperature had the highest forage yield,water consumption,and water productivity and the most favorable coefficients of variation and sustainable yield indices.Under low-precipitation and high-temperature conditions,cultivars with greater thermal-time requirements before flowering achieved higher forage yields and sustainable yield indices.Across the Jinzhong region,alfalfa yield,water consump-tion,and water productivity were positively correlated with growing-season precipitation and negatively correlated with air temperature(P<0.05),whereas the sustainable yield index was positively correlated with growing-season precipitation(P<0.05).These results indicate that long-term alfalfa production in the Jinzhong region is primarily constrained by precipitation.Selecting cultivars with greater thermal-time requirements and stronger drought resistance may improve productivity and production sustainability under potential high-temperature and summer-drought conditions.