基于安徽省医疗卫生机构人员数量构建卫生人力资源最优组合预测模型的策略探讨OA

Objective To construct and compare various combined forecasting models for health human resources based on personnel number in Anhui Province's healthcare institutions,to explore strategies for developing the optimal combined forecasting model.Methods Data on the personnel number in healthcare institutions in Anhui Province from 1988 to 2022 was obtained from the Anhui Statistical Yearbook.All possible combined models were constructed using the Holt model,ARIMA model,NNAR model,GM(1,1),and random forest model.The personnel number in Anhui Province's healthcare institutions from 2018 to 2022 was predicted.The optimal combined model was selected by comparing 3 error metrics of mean squared error(MSE),mean absolute error(MAE),and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE).Results The combined model of the GM(1,1)and random forest achieved the lowest prediction error among all combined models,with MSE,MAE and MAPE values were 146,101,146,10,587.465 and 2.267,which was the optimal combined forecasting model.Conclusion A certain number of individual models are initially selected,and all possible combinations are generated.These combined models are then evaluated using error metrics to effectively identify the one with the smallest prediction error.This strategy can scientifically and rationally screen various models,ultimately yielding the optimal combined forecasting model.