1990-2021年全球和中国归因于高BMI的白内障疾病负担及变化趋势分析OA
Disease burden of cataract attributable to high BMI and its changing trends globally and in China from 1990 to 2021
目的:探讨 1990-2021 年全球和中国归因于高身体质量指数(body mass index,BMI)的白内障疾病负担的变化趋势,分析疾病负担的地理分布、年龄、性别、社会发展水平特异性分布特征,并预测2022-2040 年白内障疾病负担的变化趋势,旨在为优化归因于高 BMI 的白内障防控策略提供循证医学依据.方法:基于 2021 年全球疾病负担研究(Global Burden of Disease,GBD)数据库,从地理分布、年龄、性别、社会发展水平 4 个维度系统分析了 1990-2021 年全球归因于高 BMI 白内障的伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALYs)数据,并重点分析中国数据.其中地理维度涵盖了全球 21个 GBD 地区,社会发展维度涵盖了社会人口指数(socio-demographic index,SDI)水平不同的 5 类地区.运用Joinpoint 回归模型分析年龄标准化DALYs 率的变化趋势,并通过ARIMA 模型预测2022-2040 年的疾病负担趋势.结果:2021 年全球范围内归因于高 BMI 的白内障 DALYs 率最高的地区是北非和中东、大洋洲、西非撒哈拉以南,中国归因于高 BMI 的白内障疾病负担水平低于全球平均水平.1990-2021 年,全球归因于高 BMI 的白内障年龄标准化 DALYs 率持续增长,中国的增长率尤其高,达 154.43%.全球和中国的疾病负担均随年龄的增长而增加,70～74 岁人群为疾病负担的主要群体,各年龄段女性 DALYs 率均高于男性.中低 SDI 地区的年龄标准化 DALYs 率最大、增长最快,而高SDI 地区最小、增长最慢.ARIMA 模型预测显示,全球归因于高 BMI 的白内障年龄标准化 DALYs 率在 2022-2040 年将继续呈上升趋势,中国的增长率将远超全球和 5 类SDI 地区.结论:1990-2021 年,全球归因于高 BMI 的白内障疾病负担呈持续上升趋势,预计未来仍将进一步上升,中国的增长速度高于全球平均水平.控制 BMI 对于白内障防控具有重要意义,应加强相关公共卫生政策的制定和落实,重点关注中低 SDI 地区和女性、老年人群.
Objective:To investigate the disease burden and trends of cataract attributable to high body mass index(BMI)globally and in China from 1990 to 2021,analyze its distribution by age,sex,and socio-demographic index(SDI),and project future trends from 2022 to 2040.The study aim is to provide an evidence base for optimizing preventive strategies for high BMI attributable cataract.Methods:Using data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021,we analyzed and compared the disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)for cataract attributable to high BMI globally,in China,and across 21 GBD regions and 5 SDI quintiles from 1990 to 2021.Joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate temporal trends in age-standardized DALY rates(ASDRs),and an ARIMA model was applied to predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2040.Results:In 2021,the highest DALY rates for high BMI-attributable cataract were observed in North Africa and the Middle East,Oceania,and Sub-Saharan West Africa.The DALY rate in China remained below the global average.Between 1990 to 2021,the global ASDR for this condition increased steadily,while China experienced a marked increase of 154.43%.Both globally and in China,the disease burden increased with age,peaking in the 70-74 age group.Furthermore,DALY rates were consistently higher in females than in males across all age groups.Among the 5 SDI quintiles,the low-middle SDI quintile exhibited the highest ASDR and the fastest growth,whereas the high SDI quintile had the lowest rate and slowest growth.ARIMA projections indicate that the global ASDR will continue to rise through 2040,with China's projected increase substantially exceeding both the global average and all SDI quintiles.Conclusions:The global disease burden of cataract attributable to high BMI has risen steadily since 1990 and is projected to continue increasing,with China's growth outpacing the global average.Maintaining a healthy BMI is crucial for cataract prevention.Targeted public health policies should be strengthened,prioritizing low-middle SDI regions,females,and older adults.
黄韵致;肖宇琨;王琦玮;刘臻臻
中山大学中山眼科中心,眼病防治全国重点实验室,广东省眼科视觉科学重点实验室,广州 510060中山大学中山眼科中心,眼病防治全国重点实验室,广东省眼科视觉科学重点实验室,广州 510060中山大学中山眼科中心,眼病防治全国重点实验室,广东省眼科视觉科学重点实验室,广州 510060中山大学中山眼科中心,眼病防治全国重点实验室,广东省眼科视觉科学重点实验室,广州 510060
医药卫生
身体质量指数白内障全球疾病负担变化趋势伤残调整寿命年
body mass indexcataractGlobal Disease Burden(GBD)trenddisability-adjusted life years
《眼科学报》 2026 (5)
360-373,14
广东省自然科学基金面上项目(2023A1515011102)眼病防治全国重点实验室课题基金资助(2025QZLH05)国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(82301209)广东省基础与应用基础研究基金联合基金(2022A1515012102).This work was supported by the General Program of Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2023A1515011102)the State Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology(2025QZLH05)the National Natural Science Foundation of China Youth Project(82301209)the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2022A1515012102).
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