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"天府粮仓"粮食全要素生产率测度与提升路径OA

Measurement and Promotion Path of Total Factor Productivity of Grain in the"Tianfu Granary":Based on the Panel Data of Sichuan Province from 1998 to 2023

中文摘要英文摘要

精准测算"天府粮仓"粮食全要素生产率,揭示其增长动力和影响因素,对于四川省建设高水平"天府粮仓"、强化区域粮食稳产保供能力、夯实国家粮食安全根基具有重要意义.文章基于 1998-2023 年四川省 21 个市(州)的面板数据,利用 DEA-Malmquist 指数法对粮食全要素生产率(TFP)进行了测算和分解,进一步构建计量模型实证检验其驱动因素.结果表明:1998-2023 年,"天府粮仓"粮食全要素生产率整体上呈增长态势,技术进步是驱动粮食 TFP增长的主要因素,技术效率的提升滞后于技术进步速度;"天府粮仓"粮食全要素生产率增长、技术进步和技术效率变化呈现显著的地区异质性特点,"天府粮仓"战略的实施大幅提高了粮食 TFP;粮食单产、劳均粮食播种面积、粮食单位面积科研投入、粮食有效灌溉率对粮食 TFP产生正向影响,劳均机械总动力、粮食生产结构调整程度对粮食 TFP 产生负向影响,地区经济发展水平对粮食 TFP 影响不显著.据此,提出完善多层次协同治理机制、构建技术进步与技术效率"双轮驱动"格局、完善农业科技创新机制、推动适度规模化种植等建议,以促进"天府粮仓"粮食全要素生产率的优化与提升.

Accurately measuring the total factor productivity(TFP)of grain production in the"Tianfu Granary"and revealing its growth sources and influencing factors are of great significance for Sichuan Province to build a high-level"Tianfu Granary",strengthen regional stable grain supply capacity,and consolidate the foundation of national food security.Based on panel data of 21 cities(prefectures)in Sichuan Province from 1998 to 2023,this study adopted the DEA-Malmquist index method to calculate and decompose grain TFP,and constructed an econometric model to identify the possible mechanisms affecting grain TFP.The results showed that:from 1998 to 2023,the grain TFP of the"Tianfu Granary"showed an overall growth trend;technological progress constituted the primary driving factor of grain TFP growth,and the improvement of technical efficiency lagged behind the pace of technological progress;the growth of grain TFP,technological progress and technical efficiency change in the"Tianfu Granary"exhibited significant regional heterogeneity;the implementation of the"Tianfu Granary"strategy had substantially increased grain TFP;grain yield per unit area,grain sown area per labor,grain research investment per unit area and effective grain irrigation rate had positive impacts on grain TFP,while total mechanical power per labor and the degree of grain production structure adjustment had negative impacts,and regional economic development level had no significant impact on grain TFP.Therefore,it's suggested improving the multi-level collaborative governance mechanism,establishing a"dual-wheel drive"pattern of technological progress and technological efficiency,refining the agricultural science and technology innovation mechanism,and promoting moderately large-scale planting,to promote the optimization and enhancement of grain TFP in the"Tianfu Granary".

王阳;罗振华;向祚舰

成都信息工程大学 统计学院,四川 成都 610225成都信息工程大学 统计学院,四川 成都 610225成都信息工程大学 统计学院,四川 成都 610225

管理科学

"天府粮仓"粮食生产全要素生产率(TFP)DEA-Malmquist指数法

"Tianfu Granary"grain productiontotal factor productivity(TFP)DEA-Malmquist

《现代农业》 2026 (2)

64-77,14

中国气象局软科学项目"气候变化对'天府粮仓'农户生产率的影响研究"(2024MSXM24)四川省哲学社会科学基金项目"气候变化背景下'天府粮仓'农户生产率的测度与提升路径研究"(SCJJ24ND061)成都市哲学社会科学规划项目"'天府粮仓'农户的气候适应行为及其对粮食生产的影响研究"(2024BS025).

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