岩溶隧洞穿越断层带突水风险动态评估预警OA

To address the challenge of water inrush risk assessment for tunnels traversing fault zones in karst regions,we proposed a progressive dynamic assessment method integrating multi-source information.An evaluation system comprising four first-level and eleven second-level indicators was established,and an improved game theory method was used to optimize weight allocation.Relative deterioration degree and a cloud model were introduced to perform static risk assessment prior to construction.During excavation,real-time monitoring data were incorporated to dynamically update the risk level through an iterative cloud model.The static assessment of the Qinling Tunnel section K13+500-K14+500 indicated that this section was at level Ⅳ risk.With excavation progress,the risk level evolved as Ⅳ→Ⅲ→Ⅲ→Ⅲ→Ⅲ→Ⅱ,showing an overall fluctuating but decreasing and stabilizing trend.The predicted water inflow ranges(1.0×103-10.0×103 m3/d and 0.1×103-1.0×103 m3/d)were consistent with the measured in-flow range(1.0×103-8.0×103 m3/d).The results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively captures construction-stage risk evolution and provides a scientific basis for water inrush early warning and prevention in similar projects.