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1961-2020年西南地区干旱特征的时空演变OA

Spatiotemporal variation of drought characteristics in southwest China from 1961 to 2020

中文摘要英文摘要

为揭示我国西南地区干旱特征的时空演变规律,基于干旱指数"CHM_Drought"数据集,选用标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI),结合小波分析与游程理论,系统解析了1961-2020 年西南地区干旱多维特征的时空分异规律.结果表明:西南地区干旱年发生频率为13.3%,其中2009 年最严重,贵州省频率最高;干旱变化主周期为18 和3 a,区域未来呈现长期趋干、短期趋湿的趋势;干旱以轻度与中度为主,春、秋两季较严重,干旱月发生频率整体呈东高西低格局,历时则呈西高东低,强度高值区集中于四川西北部与贵州北部;区域干旱类型存在显著空间分异,云南省夏、秋两季极端干旱易发,贵州省夏、冬两季干旱事件严重,四川省春旱突出,重庆市季节干旱结构均衡,西藏自治区冷季极端干旱风险高;降水是区域年尺度干旱的主要调节因子,而气温、降水和总辐射共同主导了季节性干旱的形成.

To reveal the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of drought characteristics in southwest China,this study selects the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)as the drought indicator based on CHM_Drought dataset.Wavelet analysis and run theory were employed to analyze the spatiotemporal dif-ferentiation patterns of multidimensional drought features in southwest China from 1961 to 2020.The results indicate that the drought frequency in southwest China was 13.3%,with 2009 being the most severe drought year,and Guizhou Province exhibiting the highest drought frequency.Drought variations followed 18-year and 3-year principal cycles,suggesting a long-term drying trend and short-term wetting trend in the region.Regional droughts were predominantly mild to moderate,with relatively severe drought events in spring and autumn.Frequency of drought months showed a higher incidence in the east than in the west,while duration was greater in the west than in the east.High-intensity drought zones concentrated in north-west Sichuan and north Guizhou.Regional droughts presented a significant spatial differentiation pattern.Yunnan Province experienced frequent extreme droughts in summer and autumn;Guizhou suffered from se-vere drought events in summer and winter;Sichuan exhibited severe spring droughts;Chongqing demonstra-ted balanced seasonal drought patterns;and Tibet Autonomous Region faced prominent risks of cold-season extreme droughts.Precipitation exhibited the most pronounced effect on regional drought,with seasonal droughts primarily determined by temperature,precipitation,and total radiation.

王子轩;黄克威;林杉;胡兆永

四川大学 水利水电学院,四川 成都 610065||四川大学 山区河流保护与治理全国重点实验室,四川 成都 610065长江勘测规划设计研究有限责任公司流域水安全保障湖北省重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430010四川大学 水利水电学院,四川 成都 610065||四川大学 山区河流保护与治理全国重点实验室,四川 成都 610065四川大学 水利水电学院,四川 成都 610065||四川大学 山区河流保护与治理全国重点实验室,四川 成都 610065

天文与地球科学

标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI)游程理论时空演变小波分析干旱特征西南地区

standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)run theoryspatiotemporal varia-tionwavelet analysisdrought characteristicssouthwest China

《水资源与水工程学报》 2026 (3)

66-73,8

科技基础资源调查专项(2022FY100205)国家自然科学基金项目(42201146)大学生创新创业训练计划项目(202610610098)

10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2026.03.08

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