贸易保护对制造业产业链风险敞口的影响效应OACHSSCD

In recent years,trade protectionism has resurfaced in Western countries,led by the United States,nations' motivation to implement trade protectionist measures has grown steadily,and the types of measures adopted have become increasingly diverse.Against this backdrop,incorporating both tariff and non-tariff measures into the risk analysis framework for manufacturing industry chains has become a key starting point for managing industry chains risks and enhancing industry chains resilience.However,existing research has primarily examined the impact of tariff policies on target countries,whilst analyses of non-tariff policies have largely been limited to a single type of measure,and research in this area remains relatively limited. Drawing on the ex anterisk measurement framework developed by Ni Hongfu et al.(2024)and Ni et al.(2024),this paper utilizes the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development's Inter-Country Input-Output Tables(OECD-ICIO)to measure the demand-side and supply-side risk exposure of the manufacturing industry chains across the globe.At the same time,this paper draws on other databases such as the Global Trade Alert(GTA),the World Development Indicators(WDI)and the World Governance Indicators(WGI)to analyze panel data on the manufacturing sectors of countries worldwide from 2008 to 2020,systematically examining the impact of trade protectionism on the demand-side and supply-side risk exposure of the manufacturing industry chains in the implementing countries.This paper finds that the immediate effects and long-term effects of trade protectionism present contrasting characteristics.In the short run,trade protectionism significantly increases a country's exposure to risks on both the demand and supply sides of its manufacturing industry chains,however,over the long run,it can significantly reduce exposure to risks on the demand side of the manufacturing industry chains.Further analysis indicates that the impact of trade protectionism is more pronounced in developing countries,in manufacturing sectors with low R&D intensity,in manufacturing sectors with trade deficits,and in samples involving tariff measures and non-tariff measures of the export-restrictive type. Compared with previous research,the innovative aspects of this paper are primarily reflected in the following three areas.Firstly,drawing on relevant theories of trade protectionism and incorporating both tariff and non-tariff measures,this paper empirically examines the impact of trade protectionism on the demand-side and supply-side risk exposure of the manufacturing sector in the implementing country.Secondly,unlike existing studies that focus solely on short-term effects,this paper goes further to examine the long-term impact of trade protectionism on the risk exposure of the manufacturing sector's industry chains in the implementing country.Thirdly,this paper examines the heterogeneous characteristics of the effects of trade protectionism in depth,based on four dimensions:the level of national development,the type of protective measures,the intensity of R&D within the industry,and the industry's trade balance. This paper provides a systematic and comprehensive assessment of the impact of trade protectionism on risk exposure at both the demand and supply ends of the manufacturing industry chains,specifically examining both immediate and long-term effects.To a certain extent,it reveals the logical relationship between trade protectionism and risk exposure at these two ends of the manufacturing industry chains.This is of paramount importance for countries worldwide in actively addressing the shocks caused by trade protectionism,safeguarding the healthy development of the manufacturing sector,and promoting the stable operation of industry chains.