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绿色税收对碳生产率的影响OACHSSCD

Impact of Green Taxation on Carbon Productivity:An Empirical Study Based on the Spatial Durbin Model

中文摘要英文摘要

以绿色税收推动绿色发展、提升碳生产率是践行"两山"理论,建设"美丽中国"的应有之义,也是推动中国区域经济"碳解锁"的必然要求.文章使用2005-2023年中国30个省份的面板数据,基于对碳生产率指标的有效测度,运用双向固定效应模型及空间杜宾模型实证检验了绿色税收对碳生产率的非线性影响及作用机制.研究发现:绿色税收对碳生产率的影响表现出先抑制后促进的"U型"特征,在经过更换空间权重矩阵、替换核心解释变量、替换被解释变量、剔除直辖市数据多重稳健性检验后结论依然成立;异质性分析结果表明,绿色税收在中部和西部地区的影响更为显著,在东部地区的影响效应不明显;作用机制分析结果表明,绿色税收通过影响区域能源消费结构进而对碳生产率产生非线性作用.

Promoting green development and enhancing carbon productivity through green taxation is an inherent require-ment of practicing the"two mountains"theory(i.e.,"Lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets")and building a"Beautiful China",and it is also an inevitable requirement for promoting the"carbon unlocking"of China's regional economies.This paper uses the panel data from China's 30 provinces from 2005 to 2023 and based on the effective measurement of carbon productivity indicators,employs the bidirectional fixed effects model and the Spatial Durbin Model to empirically examine the non-linear impact and action mechanism of green taxation on carbon productivity.The research findings show that the impact of green taxation on carbon productivity presents a U-shaped characteristic of first inhibiting and then promoting,and that the conclusion still holds after multiple robustness tests,including changing the spatial weight matrix,replacing the core explanatory variable,re-placing the explained variable,and excluding municipal data.The results of the heterogeneity analysis show that the impact of green taxation is more significant in the central and western regions,while its impact effect is not obvious in the eastern region.The results of the mechanism analysis show that green taxation exerts a nonlinear effect on carbon productivity by influencing the regional energy consumption structure.

钟军委;薛桂芝;李雨欣

河南财经政法大学 财政税务学院,郑州 450046河南财经政法大学 财政税务学院,郑州 450046河南财经政法大学 财政税务学院,郑州 450046

管理科学

绿色税收碳生产率能源结构空间杜宾模型

green taxationcarbon productivityenergy structurespatial Durbin model

《统计与决策》 2026 (12)

136-141,6

河南省哲学社会科学规划一般项目(2025BJJ00018)

10.13546/j.cnki.tjyjc.2026.12.022

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