人才结构、产业复杂度与经济可持续增长OA
Talent Structure,Industrial Complexity and Sustainable Economic Growth
作为引领现代化产业体系构建、新质生产力提升的核心动力,人才年龄、性别、人力资本、学历、类型与流动结构的优化,正为经济可持续发展带来前所未有的发展机遇.针对人才结构影响经济可持续增长问题,基于科技创新与教育经济理论,依据 2010-2023 年世界银行与哈佛大学 Atlas合并数据库,运用中介效应与双重机器学习模型,构建了中国与全球发达经济体的经济可持续增长分析框架.研究发现:(1)人才结构显著促进了经济可持续增长,该结论在多种稳健性检验中依然成立;(2)机制识别结果表明,人才结构主要通过动态匹配产业技术梯度、要素密度与创新协同度等内在路径推动产业复杂度的提升;(3)产业复杂度在人才结构影响经济可持续增长的过程中,具有显著的完全的中介效应,机制为创新赋能、结构升级和韧性强化;(4)异质性分析显示,城镇化、生态化和数字化程度较高的经济体,人才结构赋能经济可持续增长的效应更为突出.研究提出建设"底座技能化、中层复合化、顶层系统化"的人才结构和区域动态化协同化的立体人才生态系统,为我国"十五五"时期教育强国目标建设与经济高质量发展提供政策制定的参考.
Based on technological innovation and educational economics theories,utilizing the integrated World Bank-Harvard University Atlas database(2010-2023)and employing mediation effect and double machine learning models.The findings reveal that:Talent structure significantly promotes sustainable economic growth,a conclusion that remains robust under various checks;Mechanism identification results show that talent structure primarily drives the upgrading of industrial complexity through internal pathways such as dynamically matching industrial technology gradients,factor density,and innovation synergy;Industrial complexity plays a significant complete mediating role in the process through which talent structure affects sustainable economic growth,operating via innovation empowerment,structural upgrading,and resilience strengthening;Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect of talent structure in empowering sustainable economic growth is more pronounced in economies with higher degrees of urbanization,ecological development,and digitalization.
汪小龙
无锡太湖学院会计学院 (江苏 无锡 214064)||天津大学教育学院 (天津市 300350)
社会科学
人才结构产业复杂度经济可持续增长双重机器学习前沿因果推断
talent structureindustrial complexitysustainable economic growthdouble machine learningcausal inference
《天津市教科院学报》 2026 (2)
37-58,22
江苏高校"青蓝工程"资助项目"优秀青年骨干教师"(JSGX004).
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