沿海城市气象特征对颗粒物与臭氧浓度的影响OA
Effect of Meteorological Characteristics on Particulate Matter and Ozone Concentrations in Coastal Cities
基于2023年上海市临海、近海及中心城区的监测站点数据,利用Pearson相关系数和极限梯度提升树(XGBoost)模型,分析气象特征和海陆风对颗粒物(PM2.5、PM10)和臭氧(O3)的影响.结果表明,污染物呈明显的季节性差异,各站点PM2.5浓度冬季最高,O3浓度高值集中在5月至8月,滨海区域PM10浓度在4月最高,中心城区的PM10浓度则在12月最高;海陆风日天数呈中心城区(17 d)<近海(47 d)<临海(73 d)的变化趋势,近海与临海的海陆风日集中在夏季,中心城区无明显季节性变化,海陆风日发生时,近海与临海区域颗粒物浓度降低,同时O3浓度升高,对中心城区污染物的影响较小;气象特征对不同季节污染物影响显著,春、冬季降水与PM2.5、PM10浓度呈显著负相关,温度和日照时间与O3浓度呈显著正相关,湿度则与O3浓度呈显著负相关.XGBoost模型特征重要性分析表明,风速、近地面气压和温度是PM2.5浓度的主导气象特征,近地面气压对PM10浓度贡献最大,对中心城区的贡献程度最高为74.7%,温度对各站点的O3浓度影响程度最为显著.模型的模拟结果显示,PM2.5和O3模拟结果较优,整体预测精度呈现中心城区<近海<临海的变化趋势.
In this study,based on particulate matter and ozone data from air quality monitoring stations in Shanghai near-sea,offshore and central urban area in 2023,the Pearson's correlation coefficient and XGBoost model are used to investigate the effect of meteorological characteristics and sea-land winds on PM2.5,PM10 and O3.The results indicate,pollutants exhibit clear seasonal variation,with the highest concentration of PM2.5 in winter,while O3 concentration peaks occurr from May to August,PM10 concentrations are the highest in April in coastal areas and in December in the central urban area.The occurrence of sea-land wind days at each site is central city(17 d)<offshore(47 d)<near-sea(73 d),sea-land wind days in offshore and near-sea areas are the most in summer,and the central urban area shows no significant seasonal variation.When the sea-land wind day occurs,particulate matter concentrations in coastal areas decrease,and O3 concentrations increase.The impact of sea-land winds on pollutants in the central urban area is relatively minor.Meteorological characteristics significantly influence pollutants in different seasons,the precipitation is significantly negatively correlated with PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations in spring and winter,the temperature and sunshine duration are positively correlated with O3 concentration,and the humidity is significantly negatively correlated with O3 concentration.The feature importance analysis of the XGBoost model indicates that the wind speed,near-surface air pressure,and temperature are the dominant meteorological characteristics for PM2.5 concentrations,the near-surface pressure contributes the most to PM10 concentration at each site,with the highest contribution of 74.7%to the central city,and the temperature has the most significant effect on O3 concentration at all sites.The simulation results of the XGBoost model show that PM2.5 and O3 are better,and the overall prediction accuracy shows the central city<offshore<near-sea.
李光明;陈淑慈;彭之光;朱珠
同济大学 环境科学与工程学院,上海 200092同济大学 环境科学与工程学院,上海 200092||上海申欣优达环保科技有限公司,上海 201114上海申欣优达环保科技有限公司,上海 201114上海申欣优达环保科技有限公司,上海 201114
资源环境
PM2.5PM10O3海陆风机器学习XGBoost模型
PM2.5PM10O3sea-land windmachine learningXGBoost model
《同济大学学报(自然科学版)》 2026 (7)
1091-1103,13
上海市生态环境局科技项目(沪环科[2022]第24号)
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