东北三省不同土地利用类型的气象干旱对农业干旱的影响及贡献OA
Influence and contribution of meteorological drought on agricultural drought across different land use types in three provinces of Northeast China
[目的]东北三省不同土地利用类型下,气象干旱对农业干旱的影响程度及贡献尚不明确.鉴于气象干旱是农业干旱的重要驱动因素,因此有必要量化其影响程度和贡献.[方法]以标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和植被状态指数(VCI)分别表征气象干旱和农业干旱.通过趋势分析、相关系数和残差趋势分析,探究了 2000-2023年东北三省不同土地利用类型下气象干旱与农业干旱的变化特征及其响应关系,并评估了气候因子(SPEI和降水)与人类活动对农业干旱的贡献.[结果]结果表明:(1)在不同区域和不同土地利用类型下,东北三省的SPEI与VCI均呈现上升趋势,这表明气象干旱与农业干旱正逐渐减缓;(2)东北三省不同区域和不同土地利用类型下SPEI与VCI均呈正相关,且林地最不敏感;(3)气候因素(SPEI与降水)与人类活动的共同作用促进了东北三省农业干旱的变化,其中人类活动被认为是耕地农业干旱变化的主要驱动力,其贡献率高达70.5％.此外,人类活动对农业干旱的贡献显著大于气候因素,尤其在辽宁省全域、吉林省东南部和黑龙江省西部,人类活动的正贡献超过80％.[结论]该研究结果以期揭示东北三省气象干旱与农业干旱的变化规律,同时为旱灾关系的评估提供理论依据.
[Objective]The extent and contribution of meteorological drought's influence on agricultural drought across different land use types in the three provinces of Northeast China remain unclear.Given that meteorological drought serves as a key driver of agricultural drought,it is necessary to quantify its influence and contribution.[Methods]The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)and the Vegetation Condition Index(VCI)were used to represent meteorological drought and agricultural drought,respectively.Using trend analysis,correlation coefficients,and residual trend analysis,the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and response relationships between meteorological and agricultural drought across different land use types in the three provinces of Northeast China from 2000 to 2023 were investigated.Additionally,the contributions of climatic factors(SPEI and precipitation)and human activities to agricultural drought were evaluated.[Results]The result showed that:(1)across different regions and different land use types,both SPEI and VCI in the three provinces of Northeast China exhibited upward trends,indicating a gradual alleviation of meteorological and agricultural drought.(2)SPEI and VCI were positively correlated across different regions and different land use types,with forest land being the least sensitive.(3)The combined influence of climatic factors(SPEI and precipitation)and human activities drove changes in agricultural drought in the three provinces of Northeast China.Human activities were identified as the primary driver of agricultural drought changes in cropland,accounting for 70.5％of the total contribution.Moreover,the contribution of human activities significantly exceeded that of climatic factors,especially across the entire Liaoning Province,southeastern Jilin Province,and western Heilongjiang Province,where positive contributions from human activities exceeded 80％.[Conclusion]These findings reveal the variation patterns of meteorological and agricultural droughts in the three provinces of Northeast China and provide a theoretical basis for evaluating drought disaster relationships.
阚雨萌;武晋雯;常峻菲;宋若宁;王晨;冯锐;陈妮娜;谭月
中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,辽宁沈阳 110166||大石桥市气象局,辽宁营口 115100中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,辽宁沈阳 110166||中国气象科学研究院沈阳农业与生态气象研究院,辽宁沈阳 110166||辽宁省农业气象灾害重点实验室,辽宁沈阳 110166||盘锦国家观象台,辽宁盘锦 124000大石桥市气象局,辽宁营口 115100大连市金普新区气象局,辽宁大连 116600大石桥市气象局,辽宁营口 115100中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,辽宁沈阳 110166||中国气象科学研究院沈阳农业与生态气象研究院,辽宁沈阳 110166||辽宁省农业气象灾害重点实验室,辽宁沈阳 110166||盘锦国家观象台,辽宁盘锦 124000中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所,辽宁沈阳 110166||中国气象科学研究院沈阳农业与生态气象研究院,辽宁沈阳 110166||辽宁省农业气象灾害重点实验室,辽宁沈阳 110166||盘锦国家观象台,辽宁盘锦 124000吉林省气象灾害防御技术中心,吉林长春 130062
信息技术与安全科学
标准化降水蒸发指数植被状态指数干旱响应人类活动东北三省气象干旱土地利用类型影响因素
standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indexvegetation condition indexdrought responsehuman activitiesthree provinces of Northeast Chinameteorological droughtland use typesinfluencing factors
《水利水电技术（中英文）》 2026 (5)
68-81,14
国家重点研发计划专项(2022YFF0801301)辽宁省农业气象灾害重点实验室联合开放基金(2024SYIAEKFZD08)中国气象局气象能力提升联合研究专项重点项目(23NLTSZ006)辽宁省应用基础研究计划(2022JH2/101300193)辽宁省科技计划联合计划(技术攻关计划项目)(2024JH2/102600166)中国气象局气象能力提升联合研究专项(23NLTSQ012)
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