《欧盟零毁林法案》对中国输欧木质林产品的影响OACHSSCD

Global forest resources face severe challenges,and the international community has established a series of regulatory frameworks to address illegal logging,including the European Union Timber Regulation(EUTR).However,while the EUTR has given its play to some extent,the difficulties arising in its enforcement fail to fully achieve its objectives,which propels the EU to adopt the European Union Deforestation Regulation(EUDR).Over 20％China's exported wooden forest products are shipped to the EU market,and the enforcement of EUDR is estimated to have a significant impact on China's wooden forest product exports and may even create new trade barriers.This study constructs a two-stage analytical framework integrating machine learning variable selection(LASSO)with time series models(OLS),to quantitatively assess the dynamic impact of the EUDR after its enforcement on the value of China's wooden forest products and wooden furniture exports to the EU.The results show that the impact of EUDR exhibits distinct phased characteristics.At key milestones when the EUDR officially takes effect and when it applies to SME operators,the export value is projected to decline significantly,and the SMEs will be particularly severely affected.However,as enterprises get gradually adapted by taking measures such as improving production processes and establishing traceability systems,the export value is expected to experience a sustained recovery approximately one year after the EUDR enforcement and eventually return to the level before the EUDR implementation.