制度创新影响中国-东盟经贸关系演进的研究OACHSSCD

China-ASEAN economic and trade relations are transforming from competition-oriented interaction toward institutionally embedded integration.Existing studies have focused on trade scale expansion,structural com-plementarity,or the static effects of regional cooperation,while insufficient attention has been paid to the internal mechanism through which institutional innovation influences competitive relations and promotes regional integration.To address this gap,this study uses the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)as a representa-tive institutional innovation and constructs an analytical framework of"competition,institution,and integration"to explain the evolutionary logic of China-ASEAN economic and trade relations. Using panel data for China and the ten ASEAN members from 2010 to 2023,this study empirically examines the impact of RCEP on bilateral economic and trade integration and further investigates the transmission mechanism and conditional effects.An economic and trade integration index is constructed to capture the multidimensional na-ture of regional integration,incorporating trade in goods,trade in services,intra-industry trade,and digitally deliv-ered service exports.Based on this index,the paper uses fixed-effects models,mediation-effect models,and inter-action-effect models to test three propositions:whether institutional innovation significantly promotes China-ASEAN integration,whether industrial complementarity serves as a mediating mechanism,and whether foreign direct invest-ment(FDI)strengthens the institutional effect of RCEP. The empirical results show that RCEP has a significantly positive effect on the China-ASEAN economic and trade integration,suggesting that institutional innovation has become a major driving force in the transition from market-based cooperation to rule-based integration.By reducing institutional barriers,harmonizing trade rules,and improving policy predictability,RCEP enhances cross-border factor mobility and promotes higher regional economic coordination.Further analysis demonstrates that industrial complementarity plays a partial mediating role in this process.Institutional innovation improves the alignment of industrial structures between China and ASEAN econo-mies,facilitates vertical specialization and functional division of labor,and thereby deepens regional integration through enhanced structural matching.Additionally,capital flows amplify the integration effect of institutional inno-vation.Robustness tests excluding the pandemic years confirm the stability of these findings. This study contributes to literature in three aspects.Theoretically,it integrates co-opetition theory with region-al integration theory and proposes a dynamic framework for understanding how institutional innovation transforms competitive coexistence into stable integration.Empirically,it provides evidence on the mediating role of industrial complementarity and the moderating role of FDI in the China-ASEAN context.Practically,it offers policy implica-tions for deepening rule coordination,strengthening industrial complementarities,and promoting investment cooper-ation under the RCEP framework.