多情景土地利用演变下嘉陵江流域径流模拟OA

Land use changes have a profound impact on the water resources and ecological stability of river basins.The Jialing River Basin is characterized by the dual development orientations of urban expansion and ecological protection.To investigate runoff responses under different land-use scenarios,the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation(PLUS)model was coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)model in this study to simulate the evolution of land-use patterns and runoff processes under different scenarios.The results showed that the models performed well,with a Kappa coefficient of 0.98 for the PLUS model and a validation-period R2 greater than 0.65 for the SWAT model.Under the urban development scenario,the construction land expanded by approximately 26％,and the increase in impervious surfaces led to an expansion of high-runoff zones,particularly toward the central-southern parts of the basin.The mean annual runoff of the entire basin increased by 91 m3/s,and the hydrological regime exhibited the characteristics of"higher flood-season flows and lower dry-season flows".Under the ecological protection scenario,forest land increased to 31.05％,vegetation restoration reduced the extent of high-runoff zones,and the runoff process across the basin became more moderate.The mean annual runoff decreased by 17 m3/s,and the basin showed certain effects of flood attenuation,dry-season flow supplementation,and flow stabilization.The results can provide a reference for water-resource regulation,territorial spatial optimization,and related sponge city construction in the Jialing River Basin.