基于突变理论的车辆与高速公路护栏碰撞风险评估OA

To reduce the risk of collision accidents between vehicles and highway guardrails,a risk as-sessment method for vehicle collisions with highway guardrails based on catastrophe theory was proposed.Focusing on five aspects,namely guardrails,vehicles,roads,environment,and management,the risk sources of collisions between vehicles and highway guardrails were identified;an index system with a three-level hierarchical structure was constructed,and an index evaluation model based on catastrophe the-ory was established.By multi-level decomposition of the evaluation targets and calculating the value of the total catastrophe membership function using a normalization formula,this method assessed the collision risk level between vehicles and highway guardrails.The example validation demonstrates that the cata-strophe model can reasonably and effectively assess the target safety risk level.The assessment results are consistent with the actual situation,which provides a new idea for reducing the collision risk between vehicles and highway guardrails.