融合SNA和N-K的地下洞室施工进度风险耦合分析OA

To effectively control the construction progress of underground caverns and address the impact of multi-risk factor coupling on the construction schedule,this paper proposes a risk coupling analysis method integrating Social Network Analysis(SNA)and the N-K model.Firstly,risk factors are identified and a risk factor set is constructed using the Work Breakdown Structure-Risk Breakdown Structure(WBS-RBS)analysis method.Secondly,SNA is applied to build a risk association net-work model,clarifying the interaction mechanism between risk factors,revealing their potential coupling relationships,and analy-zing the importance of each node.Thirdly,based on the risk coupling mechanism,the N-K model is introduced to construct a risk coupling model for underground cavern construction progress,which quantifies the coupling strength under different coupling rela-tionships,calculates the coupling values for different coupling types,and uses these values to revise the node importance in the SNA.Finally,a risk factor coupling evaluation model integrating SNA and the N-K model is established.A case analysis is con-ducted taking the spillway tunnel construction of the Wudongde Hydropower Station as an example.The results show that the more risk factors involved in coupling,the larger the coupling value,and the more likely risk events are to occur.Among the 13 second-ary risk factors,adverse geological conditions,severe weather,design modification,and mutual interference in construction are the key risk factors leading to schedule delays in spillway tunnel construction,which is consistent with the actual situation at the con-struction site.