贝伦气候大会成果解读及全球气候治理展望OA
Interpretation of the Belém climate change conference outcomes and prospects for global climate governance
《联合国气候变化框架公约》第30届缔约方大会(COP30)通过了包括全球穆提饶一号决议、适应、公正转型、全球盘点以及减缓、资金、技术等议题在内的"贝伦一揽子政治成果".在美国再次退出《巴黎协定》、全球气候治理面临诸多挑战和不确定性的背景下,中国在元首外交、部长级多双边工作以及气候谈判议题等多个层面为贝伦大会做出重要贡献,并以中国方案作为全球行动方向推动全球气候治理聚焦落实,也以可再生能源等领域的切实行动助力全球绿色低碳转型.贝伦大会呈现出全球气候治理的若干动向,包括:全球气候治理格局呈现"东升西降、南合北分"的新特征;发达国家更在意新增出资义务;《巴黎协定》下5年力度周期缩短为"一年一敦促"的趋势明显;发达国家试图重塑《公约》下的原则和国家分类,规避其"二分"的实质性义务的策略倾向愈发明显.展望未来,"转型疏离化石燃料"因没有纳入成果文件可能成为COP31焦点;气候与贸易问题和公正转型议题进展显著,为发展中国家在气候多边进程中寻求上述问题的解决方案提供机遇;气候资金两年工作方案将在气候进程中保持探讨发达国家出资问题的热度;土耳其担任COP31大会主席并由澳大利亚主持谈判工作的新模式将给气候谈判走向带来更多复杂性.贝伦大会成果具有重要政治意义,坚持多边主义和国际合作应对气候变化仍是各方首选,全球气候治理有望成为中国落实全球治理倡议的先行领域,中国应保持与各方积极沟通并为参与COP31做好准备.
The Thirtieth Session of the Conference of the Parties(COP30)to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)achieved the"Belém Political Package",encompassing,inter alia,the Global Mutirão Decision,adaptation,just transition,the Global Stocktake,as well as mitigation,finance,and technology.In the context of the United States' second withdrew from the Paris Agreement and global climate governance faces numerous challenges and uncertainties,China has made significant contributions to the Belém Climate Change Conference across multiple levels,including head-of-state diplomacy,ministerial bilateral and multilateral engagement,and negotiations across climate agenda items.China has promoted global climate governance to focus on implementation with China's proposal as the direction for global action,and has also supported the global green and low-carbon transition through practical actions in the field of renewable energy.COP30 revealed several salient trends in global climate governance,including 1)the new characteristics of the global climate governance pattern as"rising in the East and declining in the West,and converging in the South and diverging in the North",2)developed countries are more concerned about newly added financing obligations,3)a trend of the five-year ambition cycle under the Paris Agreement being shortened to"annual push",and 4)developed countries are increasingly attempting to avoid substantive bifurcated obligations under the Convention.Looking ahead,the"transition away from fossil fuels"may become a focus of COP31 as it was not included in the Belém outcomes.Significant progress has been made on climate and trade issues and just transition issues,providing opportunities for developing countries to seek solutions to these issues within the multilateral climate process.The finance issue will remain as a hot topic in the climate process over the next two years.The new model of Turkey serving as the President of COP31 and Australia presiding over the negotiation work will bring some complexity to the direction of climate negotiations.The outcomes of the Belém Climate Conference carry significant political importance.Upholding multilateralism and international cooperation to address climate change remains the priority option for all Parties.Global climate governance is expected to become a forefront area for China to implement its Global Governance Initiative.China should keep active dialogues with all other stakeholders and get well prepared for the participation in COP31.
樊星;梁启迪;李仕楠;高翔;陈志华
国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心,北京 100035国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心,北京 100035国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心,北京 100035国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心,北京 100035国家应对气候变化战略研究和国际合作中心,北京 100035
气候变化全球气候治理COP30气候谈判贝伦一揽子政治成果
Climate changeGlobal climate governanceCOP30Climate negotiationsBelém Political Package
《气候变化研究进展》 2026 (3)
403-414,12
国家社科基金重点项目(23AZD066)
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