水电机组甩负荷过程参数区间不确定性研究OA

The dynamic response characteristics of hydropower units during load shedding directly affect the safe and stable operation of the hydropower station.Traditional studies have been mainly fo-cused on the use of deterministic theories and models,without fully considering the impact of parameter uncertainties during actual operation.In response to this issue,a modeling method for unit systems based on interval uncertainty analysis was developed and solved using Monte Carlo simulation to reveal the propagation characteristics of unit parameter uncertainties on system responses and to evaluate the system reliability performance of typical parameters under different uncertainty levels.The results show that the uncertainties of upstream and downstream water levels,the unit's flywheel torque,and the in-flow/outflow coefficients of the surge tank have a significant impact on the dynamic response of the unit.Moreover,the coupling effect of multiple uncertain parameters can greatly amplify the uncertainty of the system output response,and may even cause the system to exceed the reliability control limits.These relevant research results enrich the modeling and analysis system for the load-shedding transient process of hydropower units,and provide theoretical and technical guarantee for the safe and stable operation of hydropower units.