首页|期刊导航|南水北调与水利科技(中英文)|VMD-IFDA-NAHL模型在某水文站日径流预测中的应用

VMD-IFDA-NAHL模型在某水文站日径流预测中的应用OA

Application of the VMD-IFDA-NAHL model in daily runoff prediction for the hydrological station

中文摘要英文摘要

为提升水资源科学化管理水平,增强洪水灾害预防能力,构建一种基于变分模态分解-改进流向算法-具有增强隐含层的自动神经网络模型(variational mode decomposition-improved flow direction algorithm-network with an augmented hidden layer,VMD-IFDA-NAHL)的日径流预测模型,该模型运用变分模态分解技术对某水文站的日径流数据进行预处理,去除径流数据中存在的噪声并提取日径流数据中潜在的非线性特征;采用改进流向算法对具有增强隐藏层的自动神经网络模型进行优化,提高模型对径流变化的捕捉能力和预测精度.同时,以某水文站为例,开展 VMD-IFDA-NAHL预测模型与对比模型日径流预测的研究.结果表明:VMD-IFDA-NAHL模型在径流预测的准确性、稳定性和泛化能力方面均优于对比模型,显示出在径流预测领域的广阔应用潜力.构建的日径流预测模型可以为水资源管理、防洪调控等提供可靠的、科学的数据支撑.

Conducting research on high-precision runoff prediction models is crucial in providing a reliable data support for water resource management and flood control.For daily runoff prediction,we designed a variational mode decomposition-improved flow direction algorithm network with an augmented hidden layer(VMD-IFDA-NAHL).This model first employs variational mode decomposition(VMD)to preprocess daily runoff data from the hydrological station,removing noise and extracting latent nonlinear features within the runoff data.Subsequently,an improved flow direction algorithm(IFDA)is applied to optimize the auto-neural network model with an augmented hidden layer,thereby improving the model's ability to capture runoff variations and improve prediction accuracy.Using the hydrological station as a case study,the VMD-IFDA-NAHL model and a reference model are compared in terms of daily runoff prediction.The results show that the VMD-IFDA-NAHL model outperforms the reference model in terms of accuracy,stability,and generalization ability in runoff prediction,indicating that it has a wide range of applications in runoff forecasting.Therefore,the daily runoff prediction model developed can provide reliable and scientific data support for water resource management,flood control regulation,and other related fields.

丁公博;王超;徐宇萱;许珂

四川大学水利水电学院,成都 610065||中国水利水电科学研究院水资源所,北京 100038中国水利水电科学研究院水资源所,北京 100038北京信息科技大学,北京 102206四川大学水利水电学院,成都 610065||中国水利水电科学研究院水资源所,北京 100038

建筑与水利

日径流预测自动神经网络变分模态分解流向算法改进径流算法

daily runoff predictionautomatic neural networkvariational modal decompositionflow direction algorithmimproved flow direction algorithm

《南水北调与水利科技(中英文)》 2026 (3)

554-561,8

国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3204603)国家自然科学基金项目(52394234)

10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2026.0054

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