基于组合赋权-改进云模型的广西新型电力系统气候韧性评估与耦合协调分析OA

In response to the impact of climate change on the new power system,this paper constructs a climate resilience assessment index system for the new power system of Guangxi based on the pressure-state-response(PSR)model.It uses a combination of entropy weight,objective weighting value,and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to determine the weight,applies Beta distribution quantiles to classify resilience levels,improves the cloud model to correct boundary deviations,and analyzes the synergistic effects of its subsystems through coupling coordination degree.Research shows that from 2015 to 2022,the climate resilience index of the new power system in Guangxi changed from 0.534 2 to 0.694 7,maintaining a relatively high level of resilience.In 2020,it reached a peak of 0.727,mainly due to the expansion of renewable energy installed capacity.The pressure subsystem remains constrained by population growth and extreme climate,while the state subsystem improves significantly due to the increased proportion of non-hydro renewable energy.The response subsystem is affected by policy implementation delays.The coupling coordination degree is maintained at primary coordination,reflecting the strong subsystem interactions.It is recommended to enhance the climate resilience of systems with a high proportion of renewable energy through measures such as optimizing energy supply models and strengthening energy storage infrastructure.