面向"双碳"目标的区域农业碳足迹演变及驱动机制:基于新疆典型农作物的实证分析OACHSSCD

Accurate assessment and coordinated governance of agricultural carbon footprints are critical to achieving China's dual-carbon goals and sustainable agricultural development.Taking cotton,maize,and wheat in Xinjiang as the study objects,this paper constructs a multidimensional framework that integrates life-cycle assessment(LCA),spatial au-tocorrelation analysis,spatiotemporal hotspot detection,and the LMDI decomposition model,using life-cycle data during 2004-2020.The results indicate that:(1)The total carbon footprints of the three crops increased over time,with average annual growth rates of cotton(7.6%)>maize(7.0%)>wheat(4.8%).(2)Spatially,the total carbon footprint ex-hibits a"high in the west,low in the east"gradient,and in most prefectures,the ranking is cotton>maize>wheat.Global Moran's I reveals an overall random spatial pattern,except for wheat in 2012,which shows significant negative spa-tial autocorrelation.Hotspot analysis shows that the Kashgar region is a common hotspot for the three major crops.Cotton hotspots are stably distributed in Kashgar and Aksu.The high-value areas of maize have shifted from the southwest to the central-north and east.The high-value areas of wheat also show an eastward trend.Kashgar,Ili,and Changji continue to be high hotspot areas.(3)LMDI results show that production structure optimization(AI)exerts a significant mitigation effect(cumulative contribution rates:cotton-255.5%,maize-256.9%,wheat-533.5%),whereas rising carbon in-tensity(CI)and economic development(EI)are the primary drivers of emission increases.These findings provide a theo-retical basis for innovating mitigation pathways in arid agricultural regions and offer decision support for achieving regional dual-carbon targets and green agricultural development.