基于多因素驱动的绿氨/灰氨-煤混烧减碳方案经济性分析OA

The production of green ammonia from renewable-energy-based water electrolysis and its subsequent co-firing with coal in coal-fired power units are of great significance for achieving China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.In this study,a levelized cost of electricity(LCOE)model for ammonia-coal co-firing in coal-fired power units is established.Based on this model,the economic costs of ammonia-coal co-firing and conventional coal-fired power generation are comparatively analyzed under different fuel prices,renewable electricity prices,ammonia co-firing ratios,and carbon prices.Furthermore,the future economic competitiveness of ammonia-coal co-firing is evaluated by considering projected trends in coal prices,carbon prices,and ammonia production costs.The results show that,under current coal prices,renewable electricity prices,and related market conditions,the power generation cost of ammonia-coal co-firing is higher than that of conventional coal-fired power generation.In addition to the effect of specific coal consumption,coal price and ammonia co-firing ratio are the dominant factors affecting the LCOE of both gray-ammonia/coal and green-ammonia/coal co-firing.Under the current carbon-emission policy framework,carbon price has a relatively limited impact on the economic performance of ammonia-coal co-firing.When the carbon price is 400 CNY/t and the coal price is 600 CNY/t,green-ammonia/coal co-firing becomes more economically competitive than conventional coal combustion only if the renewable electricity price falls below 0.018 4 CNY/(kW •h).For gray-ammonia/coal co-firing,its LCOE becomes comparable to that of conventional coal combustion when the carbon price is 400 CNY/t and the coal price decreases to 47.215 CNY/t.The LCOE of gray-ammonia/coal and green-ammonia/coal co-firing reaches parity when the coal price is not lower than 2 019 CNY/t and the renewable electricity price is not lower than 0.078 CNY/(kW•h).