风险冲击对天然橡胶种植户生计韧性的影响OACHSSCD

⑴ Background——Natural rubber is an important industrial raw material and strategic resource,and the stability of its industry is critical to the security of national strategic resource.Natural rubber farmers are the core entities in rubber production and management.Their sustainable operation and livelihood security play a crucial role in the stable development of the rubber industry.However,compared with other cash crops,natural rubber production is affected by multiple risk shocks.How natural rubber farmers can effectively respond to risk shocks and enhance their livelihood resilience has become an important issue for safeguarding industrial development and improving farmers'well-being. ⑵ Methods——This paper first constructed a theoretical analytical framework of"risk shocks-livelihood resilience".Risk shocks mainly included health risks,natural risks and market risks,while livelihood resilience was divided into buffering capacity,self-organizing capacity and learning capacity.On this basis,the research hy-potheses were proposed.Then,it adopted a double machine learning model to examine the impact of multiple risk shocks on the livelihood resilience of natural rubber farmers and its internal mechanism.The research data were derived from the field surveys conducted by the research group of the China Agriculture Research System for Nat-ural Rubber in Yunnan and Hainan in December 2024 and February 2025,with a total of 1 233 valid question-naires obtained. ⑶ Results——First,risk shocks generally weaken the livelihood resilience of the natural rubber farmers.Second,different types of risk shocks have varying impacts on the livelihood resilience of the natural rubber farm-ers.Among them,health risks have the strongest negative impact,followed by market risks,while the impact of natural risks is not statistically significant.Third,risk shocks make the natural rubber farmers more focus on cur-rent income and neglect long-term planning by enhancing their time preference,thereby exerting a negative effect on their livelihood resilience.Fourth,insurance participation effectively mitigates the adverse impacts of natural and market risks through risk diversification and financial compensation.The availability of loans positively mod-erates the negative impact of risk shocks on the livelihood resilience by alleviating the liquidity constraints after risk shocks.Fifth,the negative impact of risk shocks on the livelihood resilience of the natural rubber farmers is more significant in the low-resilience group. ⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Based on the above research conclusions,the following policy sug-gestions are proposed:First,improve the risk sharing and income stabilization mechanism.Increase fiscal subsi-dies and claim settlement efficiency for natural rubber insurance,promote risk-hedging instruments such as"price insurance+futures",and expand the coverage of insurance.Establish a guaranteed-price purchase and income distribution mechanism.Second,alleviate liquidity constraints and enhance post-risk recovery capacity.Rely on the county-level credit system to promote"credit rating+microcredit",provide mortgage-free or interest-subsi-dized loans,and focus on supporting the rubber farmers with low-resilience to improve their access to funds and production recovery capacity.Third,enhance long-term production capacity and livelihood diversification.Promote stress-resistant varieties,electric rubber tapping and other technologies,and link technology adoption with subsidies.Develop composite management models such as"rubber+understory economy"to broaden income sources.