林农碳汇项目参与意愿和实际行为悖离的影响因素研究OACHSSCD

⑴ Background——Developing forest carbon sinks projects is an important pathway to enhance forest eco-logical functions,improve carbon sinks capacity,and support the achievement of carbon neutrality goals.Existing studies have mainly focused on the public good attributes and positive externalities of forestry carbon sinks pro-jects,particularly in terms of policy incentives,compensation mechanisms,and market design.However,rela-tively limited attention has been paid to the behavioral responses of forest farmers as direct projects participants,especially the mismatch between their participation intention and actual participation behaviors. ⑵ Methods——Drawing on the Ability-Motivation-Opportunity(AMO)framework,this paper con-structed an analytical framework to examine the determinants of the intention-behavior gap in forest farmers'participation in carbon sinks projects.Using micro-level survey data collected from forest farmers,a bivariate probit model is employed to jointly analyze participation intention and actual behaviors.The analysis focused on the key factors related to participation capacity,internal motivation,and external opportunities,while further ex-ploring heterogeneity across different farmer groups. ⑶ Results——The results indicate that economic capacity,information acquisition ability,ecological rec-ognition,peer effects,land disposal rights,and policy support significantly reduce the likelihood of an intention-behavior gap among forest farmers.In contrast,older age is associated with a higher probability of behavioural deviation.Individual and household characteristics such as health status,labour endowment,village cadre identi-ty,forest tenure certification,and access to forestry subsidies help promote the transformation of participation in-tention into actual behaviour.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effects of information access,property rights,and policy support differ across age groups,cadre status,and subsidy conditions. ⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The findings suggest that the intention-behavior gap in forest farmers'participation in carbon sinks projects arises not from insufficient intention,but from mismatches among participation ability,motivation,and institutional conditions.Promoting effective farmers participation therefore requires coordinated policy interventions that enhance capacity building,strengthen ecological value recognition,and improve institutional support.Targeted and differentiated policy measures are essential to reduce behavioral barriers and improve the overall effectiveness of forest carbon sinks projects implementation.