长三角区域居民直接碳排放变化趋势及影响因素研究OA

The Yangtze River Delta,as the region with the most developed economy and the highest level of urbanization in China,plays a significant role in promoting green and low-carbon development,realizing the national"dual carbon"strategy,and building a Beautiful China Initiative.Based on data from 2012 to 2023 statistical yearbooks,the direct carbon emissions of residents in the Yangtze River Delta and their influencing factors were calculated using the emission inventory method and the Kaya-LMDI model.The results showed that the total direct carbon emissions of residents in the Yangtze River Delta region exhibited a growing trend during the study period,with an average annual growth rate of 4.81%.Among the provinces,the highest cumulative growth rate was observed in Zhejiang Province,reaching 93.72%.The analysis of influencing factors indicated that the energy structure effect and the energy intensity effect were identified as the main factors inhibiting direct carbon emissions from residents,whereas the consumption level effect and the population scale effect were found to be the primary drivers of increased carbon emissions.Based on these findings,policy recommendations were proposed,including promoting the low-carbon transformation of the energy structure,improving regional energy efficiency,guiding green consumption patterns,and optimizing population distribution and urbanization governance,in order to enhance the region's capacity for coordinated emission reduction and green development.