炎症-免疫-营养指标对胃癌腹膜转移的预测模型OA

Objective To evaluate the predictive value of inflammatory,immune,and nutritional indicators for peritoneal metastasis after radical gastrectomy in gastric cancer and to establish a predictive model applicable for preoperative risk assessment.Methods Clinical data from 85 patients with advanced gastric cancer treated at Suzhou Municipal Hospital between 2022 and 2024 were retrospectively collected.Patients were divided into two groups based on postoperative peritoneal metastasis occurrence:a metastasis group(n=44)and a non-metastasis group(n=41).Indicators analyzed and compared between groups included nutritional parameters(serum albumin,fibrinogen,PNI),inflammatory markers(neutrophil count,CRP,NLR,SII),tumor markers and immune indicators(lymphocyte count,IL-2,IL-6,TNF-α,IFN-γ).Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses identified independent predictors for constructing the prediction model.Internal validation was performed using 1 000 bootstrap resamples to calculate the adjusted area under the curve(AUC)and shrinkage factor for model optimization.Results Multivariate analysis identified IL-6(OR=1.116,95%CI:1.020-1.224)and CA125(OR=1.016,95%CI:1.006-1.026)as independent predictors of postoperative peritoneal metastasis.The constructed predictive model demonstrated good discriminatory ability,with an initial AUC of 0.801(95%CI:0.702-0.900)and a bootstrap-corrected AUC of 0.797.The model exhibited ideal calibration and good clinical robustness.Conclusions This study established a predictive model based on preoperative IL-6 and CA125 levels to assess the risk of peritoneal metastasis after radical surgery in gastric cancer patients.The model effectively identifies high-risk cases preoperatively,providing critical guidance for developing individualized adjuvant treatment and follow-up strategies,with potential to improve patient prognosis.