农村产业融合水平测度和阶段识别及驱动机制研究OA

Rural industrial integration is a key link in the modernisation of agriculture and rural areas.Taking Qinghai Province as an example,we quantitatively evaluated the development indicators of the rural industrial integration system by constructing a"behaviour-benefit-sustainable"evaluation index system,then analysed its development stages based on the coupled coordination model and two-dimensional analysis mapping,and finally quantitatively explored its driving mechanism using the VAR model.The results show:(1)the level of rural industrial integration was increasing with fluctuation,and achieved the transition from"poor"to"good",and there was a common development trend among the subsystems,but the development level of the behaviour system was seriously lagging behind that of the efficient and sustainable system.(2)The degree of correlation between rural industrial integration systems was extremely high,and the degree of coupling coordination developed from'moderate dissonance'to'basic coordination'.Its developmental stage was at the stage of'low coordination-low level',and the time sequence showed a tendency to develop towards'high coordination-high level'.(3)The impulse response results showed that rural industrial integration was most sensitive to market-driven shocks,with insufficient support from the science and technology and transport drivers,and an apparently negative response to education-driven shocks.(4)The results of variance decomposition showed that the development of rural industrial integration was mainly determined by the contribution rate of market-driven,and belonged to the benefit-driven industrial integration development.In general,the integration of rural industries was the result of joint actions driven by market forces,education,technology and transportation,and guided by government policies and environmental protection initiatives.