基于最大熵模型的林芝市亚洲黑熊生境适宜性研究OA
A Study of Habitat Suitability of Asian Black Bears in Linzhi City Based on Maximum Entropy Model
野生动物分布的空间格局及其与环境因子之间的关系,是制定合理、有效保护措施的前提.为了更准确了解亚洲黑熊(Ursus thibetanus)在西藏林芝市的分布状况,本研究基于红外相机数据及野外实地调查,共获得99个黑熊的分布点及12个重要环境因子.在此基础上,应用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和GIS软件预测其在林芝市的潜在分布区域.结果显示:(1)ROC曲线下面积(AUC)平均值为0.962,表明预测结果的准确性较高,可以作为预测黑熊潜在适生区的依据.(2)亚洲黑熊在林芝市的总适生区面积为26 025.23 km2,包括高适生区2 813.31 km2,中适生区5 986.44 km2,低适生区17 225.48 km2;除此之外,非适生区面积为88 374.77 km2.(3)刀切法(Jackknife)分析结果表明:土地利用类型、距居民点距离、最暖月最高温度、平均日较差是影响亚洲黑熊潜在生境的重要因子;其他因子,如距道路距离、坡度、坡向和距河流距离,对黑熊分布区的影响较小.
The spatial distribution patterns of wildlife and their relationship with environmental factors are prerequisites for developing rational and effective conservation measures.To better understand the distribution of Asian black bears(Ursus thibetanus)in Linzhi,Xizang,this study,based on infrared camera data and field surveys,recorded 99 bear occurrence sites and 12 key environmental variables.On this basis,the MaxEnt model and GIS software were applied to predict the potential habitat distribution of Ursus thibetanus in Linzhi.The results showed:(1)The average area under the ROC curve(AUC)was 0.962,indicating high prediction accuracy.This makes the results a reliable basis for identifying potential black bear habitats.(2)The total habitat area for Asian black bears in Linzhi was 26 025.23 km².This included 2 813.31 km² of high quality habitat,5 986.44 km² of medium quality habitat,and 17 225.48 km² of low quality habitat.Areas unsuitable for habitation spanned 88 374.77 km².(3)The results of Jackknife analysis showed that the distance from the residential area,land use type,the highest temperature of the warmest month,and the normalized vegetation index were important factors affecting the potential habitat of Asian black bears.Other factors,such as distance from the road,slope,aspect and distance from the river,had little effect on the distribution of black bears.
雷川;陈明亮;王玉洁;李建川;范丽卿
西藏农牧大学 高原生态研究所西藏高原森林生态教育部重点实验室,西藏 林芝 860000||西藏自然科学博物馆,西藏 拉萨 850000西藏自然科学博物馆,西藏 拉萨 850000兰州大学 生命科学学院,甘肃 兰州 730000西藏自然科学博物馆,西藏 拉萨 850000西藏农牧大学 高原生态研究所西藏高原森林生态教育部重点实验室,西藏 林芝 860000||林芝陆生野生动物疫源疫病监测站,西藏 林芝 860000
生物科学
最大熵模型亚洲黑熊潜在适生区林芝
Maximum entropy modelAsiatic black bearPotential suitable distribution areaLinzhi
《高原农业》 2026 (3)
396-406,11
中央财政林业草原转移支付资金(XZZHLZ20220418),林芝市鬣羚和黑熊种群动态跟踪研究项目.
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